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понедельник, 26 сентября 2016 г.

Let Algorithms Decide – and Act – for Your Company




Bill Franks
In the near future, simply having predictive models that suggest what might be done won’t be enough to stay ahead of the competition. Instead, smart organizations are driving analytics to an even deeper level within business processes—to make real-time operational decisions, on a daily basis. These operational analytics are embedded, prescriptive, automated, and run at scale to directly drive business decisions. They not only predict what the next best action is, but also cause the action to happen without human intervention. That may sound radical at first, but it really isn’t. In fact, it is simply allowing analytics to follow the same evolution that manufacturing went through during the industrial revolution.
Centuries ago everything was manufactured by hand. If you needed a hammer, for example, someone would manually produce one for you. While manually manufacturing every item on demand allows for precise customization, it doesn’t allow for scale or consistency. The industrial revolution enabled the mass production of hammers with consistent quality and lower cost. Certainly, some customization and personal touches were lost. But the advantages of mass production outweigh those losses in most cases. It remains possible to purchase custom made items when the expense is deemed appropriate, but this usually only makes sense in special situations such as when the purchaser desires a one-of-a-kind piece.
The same revolution is happening in analytics. Historically, predictive analytics have been very much an artisanal, customized endeavor. Every model was painstakingly built by an analytics professional like me who put extreme care, precision, and customization into the creation of the model. This led to very powerful, highly-optimized models that were used to predict all sorts of things. However, the cost of such efforts only makes sense for high-value business problems and decisions. What about the myriad lower value decisions that businesses face each day? Is there no way to apply predictive analytics more broadly?
There is.
Operational analytics recognize the need to deploy predictive analytics more broadly, but at a different price point. An assembly line requires giving up customization and beauty in order to achieve an inexpensive, consistent product. So, too, operational analytics require forgoing some analytical power and customization in order to create analytics processes that can increase results in situations where a fully custom predictive model just doesn’t make sense. In these cases, it is better to have a very good model that can actually be deployed to drive value than it is to have no model at all because only an optimal model will be accepted.
Let me illustrate the difference with a common example. One popular use of predictive models is to identify the likelihood that a given customer will buy a specific product or respond to a given offer. An organization might have highly robust, customized models in place for its top 10-20 products or offers. However, it isn’t cost effective to build models in the traditional way for products or offers that are far down the popularity list. By leveraging the learnings from those 10-20 custom models, it is possible to create an automated process that builds a reasonable model for hundreds or thousands of products or offers rather than just the most common ones. This enables predictive analytics to impact the business more deeply.
Operational analytics are already part of our lives today, whether we realize it or not. Banks run automated algorithms to identify potential fraud, websites customize content in real time, and airlines automatically determine how to re-route passengers when weather delays strike while taking into account myriad factors and constraints. All of these analytics happen rapidly and without human intervention. Of course, the analytics processes had to be designed, developed, tested, and deployed by people. But, once they are turned on, the algorithms take control and drive actions. In addition to simply predicting the best move to make or product to suggest, operational analytics processes take it to the next level by actually prescribing what should be done and then causing that action to occur automatically.
The power and impact of embedded, automated, operational analytics is only starting to be realized, as are the challenges that organizations will face as they evolve and implement such processes. For example, operational analytics don’t replace traditional analytics, but rather build upon them. Just as it is still necessary to design, prototype, and test a new product before an assembly line can produce the item at scale, so it is still necessary to design, prototype, and test an analytics process before it can be made operational. Organizations must be proficient with traditional analytics methods before they can evolve to operational analytics. There are no shortcuts.
There are certainly cultural issues to navigate as well. Executives may not be comfortable at first with the prospect of turning over daily decisions to a bunch of algorithms. It will also be necessary to get used to monitoring how an operational analytics process is working by looking at the history of decisions it has made as opposed to approving up front a series of decisions the process is recommending. Pushing through such issues will be a necessary step on the path to success.
The tools, technologies, and methodologies required to build an operational analytics process will also vary somewhat from those used to create traditional batch processes. One driver of these differences is the fact that instead of targeting relatively few (and often strategic) decisions, operational analytics usually target a massive scale of daily, tactical decisions. This makes it necessary to streamline a process so that it can be executed on demand and then take action in the blink of an eye.
Perhaps the hardest part of operational analytics to accept, especially for analytics professionals, is the fact that the goal isn’t to find the best or most powerful predictive model like we’re used to. When it is affordable and the decisions being made are important enough to warrant it, we’ll still put in the effort to find the best model. However, there will be many other cases where using a decent predictive model to improve decision quality is good enough. If an automated process can improve results, then it can be used with confidence. Losing sleep over what additional power could be attained in the process with a lot of customization won’t do any good in situations where it just isn’t possible due to costs and scale to actually pursue that customization.
If your organization hasn’t yet joined the analytics revolution, it is time that it did. Predictive analytics applied in batch to only high value problems will no longer suffice to stay ahead of the competition. It is necessary to evolve to operational analytics processes that are embedded, automated, and prescriptive. Making analytics operational is not optional!

воскресенье, 24 апреля 2016 г.

The Anatomy of a Perfect Checkout Page




So you’ve spent time, money and effort creating your online shop. Your landing page is engaging, your product descriptions are tempting and your product photos are spot on. You have a steady stream of traffic coming to your site – but are your sales figures matching up?
If not, it might be time to optimize your checkout process.
Your checkout process is that last hurdle before visitors into customers, so it’s crucial to get it right. According to the Baymard Institute, 68.83% of online shopping carts are abandoned. That’s a huge missed opportunity that could potentially be recovered.
So what makes the perfect checkout page?
Perfection varies according to your product and audience. Imagine buying a high-end designer item versus buying office stationery. You’ll want to dwell over one purchase while pay using a one-click button for the other. No two eCommerce websites are alike, and so no two checkout processes should be either.
The only way to find your own version of ‘perfection’ is to continuously test to see what works. It’s imperative to explore the possibilities in a planned way – with A/B testing.
You simply create an alternative version of  your checkout page and compare it against the original to see which produces the best results. The benefit of testing is that you get data that tells you which version works better before committing to any major changes. A/B tests can be as simple as changing a few words to altering the entire layout.
Here are some ideas to get started:

Test for Checkout Page Usability

  • Is the information ordered logically?
  • Are instructions on forms clear?
  • Are there any distractions?
  • Is the text big enough?

Test for Psychological Triggers on Checkout Page

  • Are there visual cues of security?
  • Is the progress bar obvious enough?
  • Are the images large enough?
  • Does the colour scheme work?
VWO’s repository of over 150 case studies is a good starting point for those who want to see what others are testing. But every retailer is different – so look at your own findings and data to see what you should try.
Fine-tuning the checkout process takes time and experimentation. Get it right and you’ll end up with happy customers who will be coming back for more. Get it wrong and your tests will only point you in the right direction.
We’ve put together this handy infographic that pinpoints the key elements to a successful checkout page which can help when planning your testing process. Don’t rely on luck and guesses – test, plan and strategically experiment with your process to ensure your sales match up with your web traffic.
ecommerce_infographic

воскресенье, 21 февраля 2016 г.

Six Principles of Effective Global Talent Management



Günter K. Stahl, Ingmar Björkman, Elaine Farndale, Shad S. Morris, Jaap Paauwe, Philip Stiles, Jonathan Trevor and Patrick Wright

Following talent management best practices can only take you so far. Top-performing companies subscribe to a set of principles that are consistent with their strategy and culture.


Internal consistency in talent management practices — in other words, the way a company's talent management practices fit with each other — is key, as companies such as Siemens recognize.

Image courtesy of Siemens.
One of the biggest challenges facing companies all over the world is building and sustaining a strong talent pipeline. Not only do businesses need to adjust to shifting demographics and work force preferences, but they must also build new capabilities and revitalize their organizations — all while investing in new technologies, globalizing their operations and contending with new competitors. What do companies operating in numerous markets need to do to attract and develop the very best employees so they can be competitive globally? To learn how leading multinational companies are facing up to the talent test, we examined both qualitative and quantitative data at leading companies from a wide range of industries all over the world.
ABOUT THE RESEARCH
This paper is based on a multiyear collaborative research project on global talent management practices and principles by an international team of researchers from INSEAD, Cornell, Cambridge and Tilburg universities. The research looked at 33 multinational corporations, headquartered in 11 countries, and examined 18 companies in depth. We selected the case companies based on their superior business performance and reputations as employers, as defined through Fortune listings and equivalent rankings (e.g., the “Best Companies for Leadership” by the Hay Group and Chief Executivemagazine).
The case study interviews were semi-structured, covering questions about the business context, talent management practices and HR function. We interviewed HR professionals and managers and also a sample of executives and line managers in an effort to understand the ways companies source, attract, select, develop, promote and move high-potential employees through the organization. A second stage of research consisted of a Web-based survey of 20 companies. The survey contained items on six key talent management practice areas (staffing, training and development, appraisal, rewards, employee relations, and leadership and succession) and the HR delivery mechanisms (including the use and effectiveness of outsourcing, shared services, Web-based HR, off-shoring and on-shoring). Ultimately, we received a total of 263 complete surveys from the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
The range of talent management issues facing multinational companies today is extremely broad. Companies must recruit and select talented people, develop them, manage their performance, compensate and reward them and try to retain the strongest performers. Although every organization must pay attention to each of these areas, our research convinced us that competitive advantage in talent management doesn’t just come from identifying key activities (for example, recruiting and training) and then implementing “best practices.” Rather, we found that successful companies adhere to six key principles: (1) alignment with strategy, (2) internal consistency, (3) cultural embeddedness, (4) management involvement, (5) a balance of global and local needs and (6) employer branding through differentiation.

How Companies Define Talent

We use the term “talent management” broadly, recognizing that there is considerable debate within companies about what constitutes “talent” and how it should be managed.1 (See “The Talent Management Wheel.”)

The Talent Management Wheel




Since the 1998 publication of McKinsey’s “ War for Talent” study,2 many managers have considered talent management synonymous with human capital management. Among the companies we studied, there were two distinct views on how best to evaluate and manage talent. One group assumed that some employees had more “value” or “potential” than others, and that, as a result, companies should focus the lion’s share of corporate attention and resources on them; the second group had a more inclusive view, believing that too much emphasis on the top players could damage morale and hurt opportunities to achieve broader gains.
The differentiated approach. Although the practice of sorting employees based on their performance and potential has generated criticism,3 many companies in our study placed heavy emphasis on high-potential employees. Companies favoring this approach focused most of the rewards, incentives and attention on their top talent (“A players”); gave less recog­nition, financial rewards and development attention to the bulk of the other employ­ees (“B players”); and worked aggressively to weed out employees who didn’t meet performance expectations and were deemed to have little potential (“C players”).4 This approach has been popularized by General Electric’s “vitality curve,” which differentiates between the top 20%, the middle 70% and the bottom 10%. The actual definition of “high potential” tends to vary from company to company, but many factor in the employee’s cultural fit and values. Novartis, the Swiss pharmaceutical company, for example, looks at whether someone displays the key values and behaviors the company wants in its future leaders.
The percentage of employees included in the high-potential group also differs across companies. For example, Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch consumer products company, puts 15% of employees from each management level in its high-potential category each year, expecting that they will move to the next management level within five years. Other companies are more selective. Infosys, a global technology services company headquartered in Bangalore, India, limits the high-potential pool to less than 3% of the total work force in an effort to manage expectations and limit potential frustration, productivity loss and harmful attrition.
The inclusive approach. Some companies prefer a more inclusive approach and attempt to address the needs of employees at all levels of the organi­zation.5 For example, when asked how Shell defined talent, Shell’s new head of talent management replied, “I don’t have a definition yet. However, I can assure you that my definition will make it possible for any individual employed by Shell at any level to have the potential to be considered talent.” Under an inclusive approach, talent management tactics used for different groups are based on an assessment of how best to leverage the value that each group of employees can bring to the company.6
The two philosophies of talent management are not mutually exclusive — many of the companies we studied use a combination of both. Depending on the specific talent pool (such as senior executive, technical expert and early career high-potential), there will usually be different career paths and development strategies. A hybrid approach allows for differentiation, and it skirts the controversial issue of whether some employee groups are intrinsically more valuable than others.

What We Found

As we looked at the array of talent management practices in the 18 companies we studied, we asked interviewees why they thought their company’s individual practices were effective and valuable. Their responses helped us to formulate six core principles. We recognize that adopting a set of principles rather than best practices challenges current thinking. But best practices are only “best” in the context for which they were designed. The principles, on the other hand, have broad application.

Principle 1: Alignment With Strategy

Corporate strategy is the natural starting point for thinking about talent management. Given the company’s strategy, what kind of talent do we need? For example, GE’s growth strategy is based on five pillars: technological leadership, services acceleration, enduring customer relationships, resource allocation and globalization. But GE’s top management understands that implementing these initiatives may have less to do with strategic planning than with attracting, recruiting, developing and deploying the right people to drive the effort. According to CEO Jeffrey Immelt, the company’s talent management system is its most powerful implementation tool.7 For instance, to support a renewed focus on technological leadership and innovation, GE began targeting technology skills as a key development requirement during its annual organizational and individual review process, which GE calls Session C. In all business segments, a full block of time was allocated to a review of the business’s engineering pipeline, the organizational structure of its engineering function and an evaluation of the potential of engineering talent. In response to Immelt’s concern that technology-oriented managers were underrepresented in GE’s senior management ranks, the Session C reviews moved more engineers into GE’s senior executive band. Talent management practices also helped to drive and implement GE’s other strategic priorities (for example, establishing a more diverse and internationally experienced management cadre).
In a similar vein, a recent survey of chief human resource officers of large multinationals highlighted another approach to aligning talent management with the business strategy. One HR director wrote:
We have integrated our talent management processes with the business planning process. As each major business area discusses and sets their three-year business goals, they will also be setting their three-year human capital goals and embedding those human capital goals within their business plan. Achievement of these goals will be tracked through our management processes.8
Strategic flexibility is important, and organizations must be able to adapt to changing business conditions and revamp their talent approach when necessary. For example, Oracle, the hardware and software systems company, found that its objective goal-setting and performance appraisal process was no longer adequate. Management wanted to add some nonfinancial and behavior-based measures to encourage people to focus on team targets, leadership goals and governance. This necessitated a significant overhaul of Oracle’s existing performance management systems, investment in line management capability and overall changes to the mind-set of line managers and employees.

Principle 2: Internal Consistency

Implementing practices in isolation may not work and can actually be counter­productive. The principle of internal consistency refers to the way the company’s talent management practices fit with each other. Our study shows that consistency is crucial. For example, if an organization invests significantly in developing and training high-potential individuals, it should emphasize employee retention, competitive compensation and career management. It also should empower employees to contribute to the organization and reward them for initiative.
Such combinations of practices will lead to a whole that is more than the sum of its parts. There should also be continuity over time. As one manager at Siemens remarked, “What gives Siemens the edge is the monitoring of consistency between systems: the processes and the metrics must make sense together.” For example, one Siemens division has tied everything related to talent management together in such a way that internal consistency among the various HR elements is virtually guaranteed. The division recruits 10 to 12 graduates per year, assigns the new hires to a learning campus (a network for top new graduates within the division) and assesses them at the development center. Later, the designated employees go through a leadership quality analysis and review procedure, including feedback and performance appraisal, and become part of the mentoring program led by top managers. The whole process is continuously monitored through reviews and linked to the company’s reward systems.
BAE Systems, the defense and security company, places a similar emphasis on consistency. From the time prospective managers arrive at the company, or upon their designation as a member of the leadership cadre, they are continuously tracked for development purposes. Drawing upon data from 360-degree appraisals, behavioral performance feedback and executive evaluations of their input to the business planning process, managers participate in leadership development programs that target the specific needs revealed by the leadership assessments.
The emphasis on consistency is also paramount at IBM, which works hard to assure that its people management systems are consistent across its subsidiaries. To achieve this alignment, IBM combines qualitative and quantitative data collected quarterly to ensure that its practices are consistently introduced and implemented. The company also conducts an HR customer satisfaction survey twice a year to learn how employees are responding to the programs and to detect areas of employee dissatisfaction.

Principle 3: Cultural Embeddedness

Many successful companies consider their corporate culture as a source of sustainable competitive advantage. They make deliberate efforts to integrate their stated core values and business principles into talent management processes such as hiring methods, leadership development activities, performance management systems, and compensation and benefits programs.9 For example, whereas companies have traditionally focused on job-related skills and experience to select people, some multinationals we studied have expanded their selection criteria to include cultural fit. These companies assess applicants’ personalities and values to determine whether they will be compatible with the corporate culture; the assumption is that formal qualifications are not always the best predictors of performance and retention, and that skills are easier to develop than personality traits, attitudes and values.10
IKEA, the Sweden-based furniture retailer, for example, selects applicants using tools that focus on values and cultural fit. Its standard questionnaire downplays skills, experience or academic credentials and instead explores the job applicants’ values and beliefs, which become the basis for screening, interviewing, and training and development. Later, when employees apply internally for leadership positions, the main focus is once again on values in an effort to ensure consistency. IBM likewise subscribes to a strong values-based approach to HR. Not only does IBM hire and promote based on values; it regularly engages employees to ensure that employee values are consistent throughout the company. It does this through “ValuesJam”11sessions and regular employee health index surveys. The jam sessions provide time to debate and consider the fundamentals of the values in an effort to make sure that they are not perceived as being imposed from the top.
We found that a strong emphasis on cultural fit and values was common among successful global companies. In evaluating entry-level job applications, Infosys is willing to trade off some immediate skill requirements for a specific job in favor of good cultural fit, the right attitude and what it refers to as “learnability.” In addition to evaluating the applicant’s college record, Infosys puts applicants through an analytical and aptitude test, followed by an extensive interview to assess cultural fit and compatibility with the company’s values.
Rather than selecting employees for attitude and cultural fit, a more common approach to promoting the organization’s core values and behavioral standards is through secondary socialization and training. Standardized induction programs, often accompanied by individualized coaching or mentoring activities, were widely used among the companies that we studied. We found that leading companies used training and development not only to improve employee skills and knowledge but also to manage and reinforce culture. For example, Samsung, the Korea-based semiconductor and mobile phone maker, has specifically geared its training program to provide its employees worldwide with background on the company’s philosophy, values, management principles and employee ethics, regardless of where the employees are located. Management’s goal is not to freeze the existing culture but to have an effective means of supporting change. Several years ago, Samsung’s top management came to realize that in order to become a design-driven company, it needed to let go of its traditional, hierarchical culture and embrace a culture that promotes creativity, empowerment and open communication. By encouraging young designers and managers to challenge their superiors and share their ideas more freely, it hopes to make the transition.
In addition to inculcating core values into young leaders, successful companies often make focused efforts to adapt their talent management practices to the needs of a changing work force.12Consider the growing interest in healthy work-life balance. As the number of employees seeking balance between their personal and professional lives has increased, more companies have begun to offer flexible working arrangements in an effort to attract the best talent and retain high-potential employees. For example, Accenture, the consulting and technology services firm, has a work-life balance program that was initially aimed at the career challenges faced by women, but it has since made it available to men as well; among other things, the program features flextime, job sharing, telecommuting and “flybacks” for people working away from their home location.13 The program has allowed Accenture to significantly reduce its turnover rate among women while also increasing its number of female partners. Internal surveys show that team productivity, job satisfaction and personal motivation among women have improved substantially. Although the number of companies offering such programs is still relatively small, the ranks are growing.
Consistent with an increased emphasis on values, some companies have introduced what might be called “values-based” performance management systems: They assess high-potential employees not only according to what they achieve but also on how they reflect or exemplify shared values. BT, the British telecommunications giant, has implemented a performance management system that looks at employees on two dimensions: the extent to which they achieve their individual performance objectives, and the values and behaviors they displayed to deliver the results. The combined ratings influence a manager’s variable pay. Other companies, too, are realizing the importance of balancing financial success with goals such as sustainability, compliance or social responsibility.

Principle 4: Management Involvement

Successful companies know that the talent management process needs to have broad ownership — not just by HR, but by managers at all levels, including the CEO. Senior leaders need to be actively involved in the talent management process and make recruitment, succession planning, leadership development and retention of key employees their top priorities. They must be willing to devote a significant amount of their time to these activities. A.G. Lafley, former CEO of Procter & Gamble, claims he used to spend one-third to one-half of his time developing talent. He was convinced that “[n]othing I do will have a more enduring impact on P&G’s long-term success than helping to develop other leaders.”14
However, that level of executive commitment is rare. In a recent survey of chief human resource officers at U.S. Fortune 200 companies, one respondent lamented that the most difficult aspect of the role was
creating a true sense of ownership among the senior leaders regarding their roles as “chief talent officer”; recognizing that having the right people in critical leadership roles is not an HR thing or responsibility, but rather, it is a business imperative and must be truly owned by the leaders of the respective businesses/functions…. Creating this type of mindset around leadership and talent is the biggest challenge I face.15
One of the most potent tools companies can use to develop leaders is to involve line managers. It means getting them to play a key role in the recruitment of talent and then making them accountable for developing the skills and knowledge of their employees. Unilever, for example, believes in recruiting only the very best people. To make this happen, top-level managers must make time for interviews, even in the face of all their other responsibilities. Line managers can contribute by acting as coaches or mentors, providing job-shadowing opportunities and encouraging talented employees to move around within the organization for career development.
The responsibility for talent development extends beyond managers. Employees need to play an active part themselves by seeking out challenging assignments, cross-functional projects and new positions. However, our survey finds that job rotations across functions or business units are not very common. Although HR managers in our survey saw value in job rotations and new assignments for career development, many companies lack the ability to implement them. A possible explanation is the tendency of managers to focus on the interests of their own units rather than the whole organization;16 this narrowness may hinder talent mobility and undermine the effectiveness of job rotation as a career development tool. A McKinsey study found that more than 50% of CEOs, business unit leaders and HR executives interviewed believed that insular thinking and a lack of collaboration prevented their talent management programs from delivering business value.17

Principle 5: Balance of Global and Local Needs

For organizations operating in multiple countries, cultures and institutional environments, talent management is complicated. Companies need to figure out how to respond to local demands while maintaining a coherent HR strategy and management approach.18 Among the companies we studied, there was no single strategy. For example, Oracle emphasized global integration, with a high degree of centralization and little local discretion. Matsushita, meanwhile, focused on responsiveness to local conditions and allowed local operations to be highly autonomous.
A company’s decision about how much local control to allow depends partly on the industry; for instance, consumer products need to be more attuned to the local market than pharmaceuticals or software.19 Furthermore, rather than being static, a company’s position may evolve over time in response to internal and external pressures. Our study suggests that many companies are moving toward greater integration and global standards while simultaneously continuing to experience pressure to adapt and make decisions at local levels. For example, Rolls Royce has global standards for process excellence, suppor­ted by a global set of shared values and a global talent pool approach for senior executives and high potentials. At the same time, it has to comply with local institutional demands and build local talent pools. Clearly, the challenge for most companies is to be both global and local at the same time. Companies need a global template for talent management to ensure consistency but need to allow local subsidiaries to adapt that template to their specific circumstances.20
Shell uses one global brand for HR excellence; each business is then able to take that global brand and apply it locally.
Image courtesy of Shell.
Most companies in our sample have introduced global performance standards, supported by global leadership competency profiles and standardized performance appraisal tools and processes. Activities that are seen as less directly linked with the overall strategy of the corporation and/or where local institutional and cultural considerations are viewed as crucial (for example, training and compensation of local staff) continue to be more at the discretion of local management. At IBM, for example, foreign subsidiaries have no choice about whether to use the performance management system; it is used worldwide with only minor adaptations. But subsidiaries may develop other policies and practices to address local conditions and cultural norms.
While locally adapted approaches create opportunities for diverse talent pools, they limit a company’s ability to build on its global learning in hiring, assessing, developing and retaining top global talent. This requires more integration across business units. One company in our study didn’t coordinate hiring and development efforts across its different divisions, so even though it had diverse talent pools, it wasn’t able to take advantage of cross-learning opportunities. Shell, on the other hand, has come to embrace HR policy replication across divisions over innovation. Companies that find a balance between global standardization and integration and local implementation have the best of both worlds. They can align their talent management practices with both local and global needs, resulting in a deep, diverse talent pool.

Principle 6: Employer Branding Through Differentiation

Attracting talent means marketing the corporation to people who will fulfill its talent requirements. In order to attract employees with the right skills and attitudes, companies need to find ways to differentiate themselves from their competitors.21 P&G, for example, was in one year able to attract about 600,000 applicants worldwide — of whom it hired about 2,700 — by emphasizing opportunities for long-term careers and promotion from within.
The companies in our study differed considerably in how they resolve the tension between maintaining a consistent brand identity across business units and regions and responding to local demands. Shell, for example, uses one global brand for HR excellence and several global practices or processes for all its businesses. The brand highlights talent as Shell’s top priority; each business is then able to take that global brand and apply it locally. This means that rather than having all branding efforts coming from corporate headquarters, each subsidiary receives its own resources to build the brand in accordance with the local market demands and the need for differentiation.
Intel takes a different approach. It positions many of its top-level recruiters outside the United States to ensure that the Intel brand is promoted worldwide. For instance, Intel has recently set up a large production facility in Vietnam. To staff the operation, the company sent a top-level HR manager from its California corporate office to build local awareness of Intel as an employer. “Hiring top talent, no matter where we are, is top priority for Intel,” the manager explained. To accomplish this, Intel has become involved with local governments and universities to advance education and computer literacy. Such investments may not pay off immediately, but they put roots in the ground in countries that see hundreds of foreign companies come and go each year.
Infosys has also taken significant steps to increase its name recognition, improve its brand attraction and fill its talent pipeline by combining global branding activities with efforts in local communities. For example, the company initiated a “Catch Them Young” program in India that trains students for a month; the students are then invited to work for Infosys on a two-month project. In rural areas, Infosys offers computer awareness programs in local languages to help schoolchildren become more comfortable with high-tech equipment. Although not initially directed at recruitment and branding, the program has been an effective strategy for enlarging the pool of IT-literate and Infosys-devoted students in India, which may eventually make it easier to find talented software engineers. Infosys’s global internship program, called InStep, however, is central to the company’s employee branding effort: It invites students from top universities around the world to spend three months at the Infosys Bangalore campus. It is part of an ongoing effort to make the company more attractive to potential candidates outside of India and to tap into the worldwide talent pool.
One way companies are trying to get an edge on competitors in attracting talent is by stressing their corporate social responsibility activities. GlaxoSmithKline, the pharmaceutical giant, offers an excellent case in point. The company capitalizes on its employment brand and reputation through regular news releases and media events at key recruitment locations. Former CEO Jean-Pierre Garnier stressed the importance of GSK’s philanthropic activities in increasing the attractiveness of the company among potential recruits and providing an inspiring mission to the employees:
GSK is big in philanthropic undertakings; we spend a lot of money with a very specific goal in mind, such as eradicating a disease. … [O]ur scientists, who are often very idealistic, follow this like an adventure. It can make the difference when they have to choose companies — they might pick us because of the effort we make to provide drugs to the greatest number of people regardless of their economic status.22
While some of the leading companies in our study see corporate social responsibility as an integral part of their talent management and branding activities, others consider improved brand attraction as a welcome result of their philanthropic activities.

A Convergence of Practices

In addition to adhering to a common set of talent management principles, leading companies follow many of the same talent-related practices. Although our survey showed that global corporations continue to use overall HR management systems that align with their cultures and strategic objectives, the companies are becoming more similar — and also more sophisticated — in how they manage talent. Several factors seem to be driving the convergence. First, companies compete for the same talent pool, especially graduates of international business schools and top universities. Second, the trend toward greater global integration23 means that companies want to standardize their approaches to talent recruitment, development and management to ensure internal consistency. And third, the visibility and success of companies such as GE, amplified by commentary by high-profile consulting firms and business publications, have led to widespread imitation.
Yet, as we noted earlier, best practices are only “best” when they’re applied in a given context; what works for one company may not work in another. Indeed, the need for alignment — internally across practices, as well as with the strategy, culture and external environment — has profound implications for talent management. Even with the global convergence in terms of the practices used, companies cannot simply mimic top performers. They need to adapt talent management practices to their own strategy and circumstances and align them closely with their leadership philosophy and value system, while at the same time finding ways to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Multinational corporations that excel in managing talent are likely to retain a competitive edge.
REFERENCES (23)
1. See R.E. Lewis and R.J. Heckman, “Talent Management: A Critical Review,” Human Resource Management Review 16 (2006): 139-154.
2. E.G. Chambers, M. Foulon, H. Handfield-Jones, S.M. Hankin and E.G. Michaels, “The War for Talent,” McKinsey Quarterly 3 (1998): 44-57.
Show All References

вторник, 1 сентября 2015 г.

From Risk to Resilience: Learning to Deal With Disruption

To prosper in the face of turbulent change, organizations need to improve how they deal with unexpected disruptions to complex supply chains. Companies can cultivate such resilience by understanding their vulnerabilities — and developing specific capabilities to compensate for those vulnerabilities.
Joseph Fiksel, Mikaella Polyviou, Keely L. Croxton and Timothy J. Pettit




In an interconnected, volatile, global economy, supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable. Disruptions — even minor shipment delays — can cause significant financial losses for companies and substantially impact shareholder value. Globalization has made anticipating disruptions and managing them when they do occur more challenging. The potential risks of disruptions are often hidden, and the potential impacts may not be understood. This often results in “black swan” events that can be understood only after the fact. As author Nassim N. Taleb has warned, “Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the very improbable ... while we spend our time engaged in small talk, focusing on the known and the repeated.”1
Although companies originally moved production offshore to countries such as India and China to take advantage of lower labor costs, events like Iceland’s 2010 volcanic eruption and the Japanese tsunami in 2011 have shown that the vulnerabilities of extended supply chains are real and serious. For example, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve, 41% of Minnesota manufacturers said that Japan’s tsunami had affected them negatively.2 As a result, many manufacturers have reevaluated their sourcing options, and some are shifting operations back to their home markets. While these companies perceive other advantages to reshoring, including improved responsiveness and domestic job creation, reducing their exposure to risk has been an important driver.
The reality is that supply chain practices designed to keep costs low in a stable business environment can increase risk levels during disruptions. Just-in-time and lean production methods, whereby managers work closely with a small number of suppliers to keep inventories low, can make companies more vulnerable due to the lack of buffer capacity. For example, many companies that followed the lean inventory model were severely impacted by Japan’s tsunami: Within a week, General Motors Corp. temporarily shut down its Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon plant in Shreveport, Louisiana, because it lacked components supplied from Japan.3
Supply chain practices designed to keep costs low in a stable business environment can increase risk levels during disruptions. Just-in-time and lean production methods, whereby managers work closely with a small number of suppliers to keep inventories low, can make companies more vulnerable.
While companies tend to focus on the supply side of their operations when scanning for potential risk factors, they also need to pay attention to the customer side. Increasing demand volatility is an important factor that can affect a company’s operations and ultimately its revenue. For example, in March 2013 Cardinal Health Inc., a distributor of pharmaceuticals and medical products based in Dublin, Ohio, announced that its contract with the drugstore chain Walgreens would not be renewed. Walgreen Co., based in Deerfield, Illinois, had been one of Cardinal Health’s largest customers, accounting for more than 20% of revenue for 2012. The news caused Cardinal Health’s share price to plummet by 8.2%.4 However, the company was able to recover quickly and continue its growth thanks to deliberate efforts to expand and diversify its customer base.

Coping With Supply Chain Risks

Traditional methods for coping with supply chain risks are based on the notion of stability as the “normal” state of affairs: Events such as explosions or floods are seen as unwanted deviations from the norm. In recent decades, most large private enterprises adopted systematic approaches to managing their risks, notably through insurance and active mitigation of supply chain risks. The importance of risk management was elevated by a number of high-profile disasters, including the deadly release of poisonous gas from a Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, in 1984, which resulted in thousands of deaths. Further motivation came from standards set by nongovernmental organizations such as the International Organization for Standardization and from government legislation, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s requirements for disclosure of “material” business risks and the German “Law for Control and Transparency in Business Entities.”5
A more integrated approach to risk management, called “enterprise risk management (ERM),” became popular in the mid-1990s and has been widely adopted by large corporations.6 It gives company executives a detailed and comprehensive view of the risks associated with different business activities, enabling managers to make more informed decisions about how to manage risk portfolios. Another risk management process, known as business continuity management (BCM), incorporates elements from disaster recovery planning and crisis management, including how to respond to disruptions and maintain backup capacity for operational systems.7
While processes such as ERM and BCM can help companies avoid supply chain disruptions and recover normal operations quickly, they also have serious limitations. To begin with, they rely too heavily on risk identification. In a complex and turbulent global supply network, many of the risks that a company faces are unpredictable or unknowable before the fact. These “emergent” risks are often triggered by improbable events whose causes are not understood, and their potential cascading effects are difficult to understand a priori. Clearly, it would be impractical for companies to identify and investigate all the potential risks that may be hidden in their global supply chains.
Second, ERM and BCM depend on statistical information that may not exist. Risk assessments are limited by the quality and credibility of the assumptions upon which they are based, and faulty assumptions or data can lead to misallocation of resources. Of particular challenge are low-probability, high-consequence events for which there is little empirical knowledge; managers may underestimate the probabilities of these events or the magnitudes of their consequences because they have never experienced them.8
Third, the traditional ERM process of risk identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring is based on a simplified, “reductionist” view of the world. Each risk is identified and addressed independently, and hidden interactions are seldom recognized. This procedural approach can lull organizations into a false sense of complacency that could be shattered by an unexpected event (for instance, an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico). The complex, dynamic nature of global supply chains requires constant vigilance to discern systemic vulnerabilities, as well as exceptional agility and flexibility when disruptions occur.
Finally, traditional risk management is predicated on the goal of returning to a stable operating condition; risks represent potential deviations from this “normal” state. However, a more realistic view is to recognize that every disruption represents a learning opportunity that may suggest shifting to a different state of operations. For example, a company that anticipates increased flooding in Southeast Asia might migrate its supply base elsewhere. Identifying latent opportunities in the risk landscape will enable a company to exploit those opportunities faster than its competitors.

The Need to Cultivate Resilience

We believe that organizations need to improve how they deal with supply chain complexity and unexpected disruptions so that they can prosper in the face of turbulent change. Organizations tend to become less resilient as they grow more complex. However, they can cultivate resilience by understanding their supply chain vulnerabilities and developing specific capabilities to cope with disruptions. They can try to emulate some of the behaviors seen in natural systems — tolerance for variability, continuous adaptation and exploitation of opportunities created by disruptive forces. Resilient systems don’t fail in the face of disturbances; rather, they adapt. Depending on the type of disturbance, the adaptation can be rapid or gradual.
A decade ago, authors Gary Hamel and Liisa Välikangas described the quest for resilience as seeking “zero trauma.”9 Few corporate managers believe that zero trauma is a realistic goal today, but some now recognize that resilience can be an important success factor that complements their traditional risk management processes. We define resilience as “the capacity of an enterprise to survive, adapt and grow in the face of turbulent change.”10 In practical terms, resilience means improving the adaptability of global supply chains, collaborating with stakeholders and leveraging information technology to assure continuity, even in the face of catastrophic disruptions. Resilience goes beyond mitigating risk; it enables a business to gain competitive advantage by learning how to deal with disruptions more effectively than its competitors11 and possibly shifting to a new equilibrium.
A classic example of supply chain resilience occurred in 2000 when one of Finland-based Nokia’s key cellphone part suppliers suffered a major fire. By identifying the crisis quickly, Nokia was able to secure alternative supplies and modify the product design to broaden its sourcing options. By contrast, Swedish multinational Ericsson, which was reliant on the same supplier, lost about $400 million in sales due to its slowness in crisis response and eventually exited the cellphone business.12(However, Nokia subsequently made serious missteps in its efforts to compete in the smartphone market and ultimately sold its devices business to Microsoft Corp.)

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Capabilities

Our SCRAM (supply chain resilience assessment and management) framework enables a business to identify and prioritize the supply chain vulnerabilities it faces as well as the capabilities it should strengthen to offset those vulnerabilities.
Over the past seven years, we have worked with a number of companies, including fashion retailer L Brands Inc. (formerly known as Limited Brands), Dow Chemical, Johnson & Johnson and Unilever to develop a comprehensive framework for assessing supply chain vulnerabilities and addressing them through enhanced resilience capabilities. (See “Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Capabilities.") To develop our taxonomies of vulnerabilities and capabilities, we studied existing literature and also conducted interviews and focus groups with managers and employees at Limited Brands and other companies that had experienced supply chain disruptions.13 Subsequently, we identified linkages between specific vulnerabilities and capabilities, enabling us to suggest proactive strategies for improvement, and we developed an assessment tool for business use.14 The resulting framework, which we call supply chain resilience assessment and management (SCRAM), is based on an explicit characterization and prioritization of an organization’s vulnerabilities and capabilities. (See “About the Research.”)

Identifying Resilience Factors and Linkages

Based on our research, we identified six major types of supply chain vulnerabilities, which we define as “fundamental factors that make an enterprise susceptible to disruptions.” A frequently cited factor was turbulence. In the context of our framework, turbulence is defined as changes in the business environment that are beyond a company’s control, including shifts in customer demand, geopolitical disruptions, natural disasters and pandemics. Another category of vulnerability isdeliberate threats, such as theft, sabotage, terrorism and disputes with labor or other groups. Additional vulnerabilities came from external pressures that create constraints or barriers (such as innovations, regulatory shifts and shifts in cultural attitudes); resource limits that have the potential to constrain a company’s capacity (such as availability of raw materials or skilled workers); thesensitivity and complexity of the production process; and the degree of connectivity in the company’s supply chain, which implies a need for coordination with outside partners. Finally, supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions that could affect their multiple tiers of customers and suppliers. (See “Supply Chain Vulnerability Factors.”)

Supply Chain Vulnerability Factors

Our framework includes six major vulnerability factors, each broken into subfactors. Vulnerabilities are typically inherent to the business and difficult to avoid.

In addition to helping us formulate the list of vulnerabilities, focus groups also helped us define a list of capabilities that companies can call upon to respond to their particular vulnerability patterns. In all, we identified 16 relevant capabilities, which we define as “factors that enable an enterprise to anticipate and overcome disruptions.” These are: (1) flexibility in sourcing, (2) flexibility in manufacturing, (3) flexibility in order fulfillment, (4) production capacity, (5) efficiency, (6) visibility, (7) adaptability, (8) anticipation, (9) recovery, (10) dispersion, (11) collaboration, (12) organization, (13) market position, (14) security, (15) financial strength and (16) product stewardship. (See “Supply Chain Capability Factors,” for explanations of these 16 capabilities.) Using the lists of vulnerabilities and capabilities as a template, we tested them at eight companies to understand their interrelationships, with the goal of creating a managerial tool for improving performance. We identified 311 separate “linkages” whereby specific capabilities can counteract specific vulnerabilities.

Supply Chain Capability Factors

The framework includes 16 capability factors, each of which is broken into subfactors. Companies can strengthen appropriate supply chain capabilities to offset the vulnerabilities they have.

Our resulting SCRAM framework provides a general methodology for companies to identify their most important supply chain vulnerabilities and to set priorities for capabilities that need to be strengthened. For example, a company that faces unpredictable market demand could strengthen a number of capabilities: flexibility in manufacturing to satisfy surges in demand; accurate, up-to-datevisibility of demand status to support timely decision making; early anticipation and recognition of market changes to enable strategic responses; and close collaboration with customers and suppliers to ensure coordinated action. Similarly, a company concerned with dependence on a complex supply network could work on flexibility in sourcing by identifying alternative sources, flexibility in manufacturing by reducing lead times, and anticipation by recognizing early warning signals of possible disruptions. Based on the results of their SCRAM analysis, managers can develop a portfolio of capabilities to address important resilience gaps and strengthen overall competitiveness.15

Putting the SCRAM Framework to Work

Although similar organizations are likely to share some similar features, different companies — and even business units within companies — will have their own distinct profile of vulnerabilities and capabilities. An organization with high vulnerabilities that does not have adequate capabilities will be overexposed to risks; in response, it should invest resources in improving the particular capabilities in question. Conversely, an organization that faces low vulnerabilities but invests heavily in capabilities may be eroding its profits unnecessarily. (See “Finding the Zone of Balanced Resilience.”) Clearly, there is no “one-size-fits-all” approach. Organizations need to pursue a balanced resilience strategy by developing the right portfolio of capabilities to fit the pattern of vulnerabilities that they face.


One company that has incorporated the SCRAM framework into its way of doing business is the Dow Chemical Co. Since 2010, Dow has implemented this framework at more than 20 of its global business units, achieving significant business benefits. For example, after applying the SCRAM process to its P-Series family of glycol ether products, Dow identified several disruption scenarios, including a production site shutdown, a raw material supply outage and an internal raw material allocation shortage. The company developed a simulation model to test the consequences of these scenarios and was able to confirm a 95% service level with its existing capabilities. Moreover, the analysis revealed opportunities for reduction of fixed assets and working capital, resulting in $1.1 million in annual savings.16 Another Dow business used SCRAM to improve its resilience to raw material supply shortages and identified more than $1.5 million in preventable losses.
The SCRAM approach represents a systems view of supply chain dynamics, helping companies to understand the inherent vulnerabilities that could lead to disruptions and the capabilities that are within their control. By learning from experience and developing a better understanding of their vulnerabilities and capabilities, companies can reduce the frequency of disruptions and the severity of their impacts, resulting in increased customer satisfaction and reduced supply chain operating costs. While reducing inherent vulnerabilities may be difficult, there are many options for improving capabilities. The cost of the improvements must be balanced against the expected supply chain performance benefits.
Early adopters of resilience thinking have already demonstrated how they can augment traditional risk management practices with new capabilities that help them to anticipate, prepare for, adapt to and recover from disruptions. In some cases, they are able to treat disasters as opportunities for gaining competitive advantage. For example, before the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland grounded millions of air cargo shipments, DHL, the international shipping company, had an emergency plan in place. It was thus able to rapidly redirect 100 flights from its hub in Leipzig, Germany, to destinations in southern Europe that were less affected, and also to shift many deliveries to ground vehicles. Ultimately, DHL was able to avoid significant financial impact while strengthening customer loyalty.17
Early adopters of resilience thinking have already demonstrated how they can augment traditional risk management practices with new capabilities that help them to anticipate, prepare for, adapt to and recover from disruptions.
Building resilience is not a substitute for other methods of ERM. Rather, it is an ongoing process that enables companies to embrace change in a turbulent and complex business environment by expanding their portfolio of capabilities. The field of supply chain resilience is still young, and there is a great need for additional research, both to understand the resilience of complex industrial systems and to develop innovative methods and technologies for improving enterprise resilience.18This research will benefit from drawing upon multiple disciplines, from ecology to social sciences to systems engineering. From a management perspective, executives need to understand the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with building capabilities in order to judge the return on their resilience investment; this will require additional empirical research. Finally, there is a need to expand resilience thinking into other aspects of enterprise management, such as organizational resilience and behavior change. Establishing a culture of resilience will help companies to thrive in an age of turbulence.
REFERENCES (18)
1. N.N. Taleb, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” 2nd ed. (New York: Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2010).
2. U.S. Federal Reserve Board, “The Beige Book” (April 13, 2011), www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook.
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