среда, 14 октября 2026 г.

Food Futures: “Еда для заземления”.

 

'Dish the Dirt', DDW — 2022. Image source

Ekaterina Khramkova, PhD


Часть 1. Отраслевой уровень в трендвотчинге.

Информацию, касающуюся работы с будущим, можно разделить на три уровня:

1. Отраслевой уровень.

С этим уровнем работают большинство представителей креативной экономики. Это работа с тренд-отчетами, отслеживание профильных источников, журналов, экспертная оценка развития своей индустрии.
Горизонт понимания: 1–3 года.

2. Прогностический уровень.

На этом уровне работает 10–15%, в основном, профессионалы Futures research, для которых это — основная профессия 24/7/365. Это уровень работы с глобальным контекстом, включающий понимание методологии сканирования и прогнозирования, свободную ориентацию в иерархичности трендов, владение совокупностью разнонаправленных тренд-сигналов, умение самостоятельно сформулировать тренд и приземлить его на конкретную индустрию.
Горизонт понимания: 5–10 лет.

3. Концептуальный уровень.

На этом уровне работают около 1–2%. Это умение работать с принципами будущего. Возможность прогнозировать динамику универсалий, касающихся тенденций развития цивилизации, общества и затем, как следствие, экономики и бизнеса.
Горизонт понимания: 25+ лет.

Каждый последующий уровень включает в себя предыдущий.

В этой серии статей я разберу три уровня трендвотчинга и их взаимодействие на примере индустрии еды в контексте сценариев “Заземление” vs. “Фантоматика”.

Будущее индустрии еды, — как и любой другой отрасли — напрямую связано с реализацией этих двух сценариев и их промежуточных форм.

Отраслевой уровень Food Futures.

Вариант будущего “Фантоматика” является магистральным, однако, проявления сценария “Заземления” будут только нарастать. Одной из тенденций последнего является запрос на локальность. Именно эта тема станет сквозной в данной серии публикаций.

Мы разберем проявления локальности в индустрии питании и, поднявшись на более высокие этажи, попробуем рассмотреть, откуда “растут ноги” у этого тренда, и чего ожидать от этого феномена в ближайшие десятилетия…

“Новая Глокальность”.

В отчете Германского Института Будущего Food Report 2023 тренд New Glocal (‘Global + Local’, “Новая Глокальность”) выделяется как один самых мощных и долгоиграющих:

Сдвиг в мировой торговле продовольствием в сторону региональных сельскохозяйственных структур, более коротких и прозрачных цепочек поставок и сосредоточения внимания на внутренних рынках.

“This describes the current shift in global food trade towards regional agricultural structures, shorter and more transparent supply chains and a focus on domestic markets”.



Запрос на Новую Глокальность в индустрии питания, начавший проявлять себя еще в 2016, в 2022 приобрел ярко-выраженные формы: сначала баланс сдвинулся в пользу Региональности, затем Локальность стала превалировать и, наконец, стала Гипер Локальностью (Hyper Local) и даже Брутальной Локальностью (Brutal Local):

Food Trends 2023, ZukunftsInstitut.

Как этот тренд проявляет себя в отраслевом разрезе?

Вот, например, так определяет свою миссию один из наиболее известных берлинских ресторанов с мишленовскими звездами Nobelhart & Schmutzig:

С самого начала Nobelhart & Schmutzig является “ультра-локальным” (Vocally Local) рестораном. С момента открытия дверей в 2015 мы бесстрашно двигались в сторону того, чтобы стать самым политическим рестораном Германии. Это предполагает осознанное решение двигаться навстречу людям большого Берлинского региона, — ведь именно здесь производятся исходные ингредиенты нашей кухни. Это, в частности, означает отказ от продуктов, выращенных в других землях — таких, как лимоны, тунец и шоколад. Наша уникальность в том, что мы не только про кулинарную эстетику…

Макротренд “Еда для “заземления”.

Продолжая тему локальности, среди наиболее знаковых трендов Food Futures мы выделяем макротренд Еда для “заземления” (‘Down-To-Earth Food') — это запрос на выход из онлайн-каналов и виртуальных сред в физическую реальность, down-to-earth, — в живой контакт людей между собой и между землей, где еде отводится одна из ключевых ролей:

  • Привязка к конкретной точке Земли и текущему времени года;
  • Запрос на “уместность”: на сезонность, на соответствие времени и месту;
  • Еда как возможность “заземлиться”, “локализоваться”, почувствовать себя “здесь-и-сейчас” в самом конкретном смысле этого слова. Через телесность, через сенсорику, через соответствие происходящего за окном содержимому тарелки и атмосфере за столом.


Макротренд “Еда для заземления”.

В макротренде “Еда для заземления” мы различаем следующие тренды:

  1. Гений Места
    Grounding Experience
    Запрос на опыт, позволяющий прочувствовать связь между конкретным Местом, Землей, Пищей и собственным Телом;
  2. Еда для Соседей
    Food for Neighborhood
    Запрос на переосмысление связей между людьми, живущими на одной земле — соседей — реализуется благодаря “выключению” из Сети;
  3. Просто (в)Месте
    Common & Simple
    Запрос на совместность действий, чувство единения и физическую общность выходят на первый план. Пусть и в простой обстановке — но вместе.

Тренд-сигналов в “Еде для заземления” огромное количество, вот лишь несколько:

Тренд-сигнал макротренда “Еда для заземления”, тренд “Гений места”.


Тренд-сигнал макротренда “Еда для заземления”, тренд “Еда для Соседей”.

Тренд-сигнал макротренда “Еда для заземления”, тренд “просто (в)Месте”.

Один из наиболее эффективных — но, очевидно, не единственных — способов ответить на тренд “Еда для заземления” — это локализовать свою кухню в пространстве и во времени, то есть усилить сезонность. По этому пути идут премиальные скандинавские и японские рестораны, а для масс-маркета появляются новые предложения.

Показательно, что, согласно исследованию sweetgreen (американская сеть ресторанов быстрого питания, где подают салаты),

73% клиентов заинтересованы в поиске новых способов включения сезонных ингредиентов в свои заказы.

Так появилось приложение персонализированных кураторских меню, в котором известные шеф-повара делятся своей коллекцией сезонных салатов на любой вкус:

Press enter or click to view image in full size
Sweetgreen’s collection: curated personalized menus.

Продолжение следует…


https://tinyurl.com/4ef9jkzt

How to Choose the Right LLM Model

 


Choosing an AI model looks like a small decision.
Then the first invoice arrives.
⠀
Or legal asks where the data went.
Or a customer gets a confident wrong answer.
⠀
Most teams pick the model that wins the demo.
Production asks different questions.
⠀
The infographic below lists seven of them.
Here is how to use each one.
⠀
1. Use case fit
Start with the job, not the model.
Coding, research, and chat need different strengths.
⠀
2. Reasoning quality
Multi-step problems need a stronger model.
Routine questions rarely do.
⠀
3. Speed and cost
Latency is how long users wait for a reply.
You pay per token, a small chunk of text.
Multiply cost per request by monthly volume before you commit.
⠀
4. Context and memory
The context window is how much a model reads at once.
Long contracts and large files need a bigger one.
⠀
5. Tool and agent support
Can it trigger actions in your systems?
Can it return data other software can read?
⠀
6. Privacy and deployment
Decide where your data is allowed to go.
A vendor's cloud. Private hosting.
Or an open-source model you run yourself.
⠀
7. Reliability and testing
Test on your real work before you scale.
Count how often it gets answers wrong.
Check that the same question gets the same answer.
⠀
WHERE TEAMS GET IT WRONG
⠀
Most teams compare models on reasoning.
That is what benchmarks measure.
⠀
The checks that most often stall projects are 3, 6, and 7.
Cost at scale. Where data goes. How it fails.
⠀
In the regulated environments I've worked in, the first question was rarely which model is smartest.
It was where the data goes, and who signs off.
⠀
One more thing most teams miss.
Whatever you choose will likely be surpassed within months.
Build so you can swap models without rebuilding the workflow.
⠀
This is the AI Execution Gap in a single decision.
The distance between what a model can do and what your organization can run, trust, and afford.
⠀
RUN THIS BEFORE YOUR NEXT AI DECISION
⠀
Write one page per use case:
→ The task it serves
→ Why this model
→ Monthly cost at real volume
→ Where the data goes
→ How it was tested
→ Who re-checks when a better model ships
⠀
If nobody owns that last line, nobody owns the decision.


https://lnkd.in/p/d2CcXrig

The 4 Stages of Forecasting

 



The 4 Stages of Forecasting from BEGINNER to ADVANCED

Which stage is your business at🪜?

Every month, I meet with founders who are looking for help around their financial model.

I rarely see a company working with a level 4 forecast…

and oftentimes, founders don’t realize how much more value can be unlocked with just a few tweaks.

Let’s go over each stage, and what to think about as your company scales

🪜 LEVEL 1 - CREATE A REVENUE BUILD (Beginner)

This is where most founders start with a forecast.

This will oftentimes suffice for an early-stage company, as the focus here is simply on the business model and the details behind the blueprint for how the company plans to scale

The key here is to think about these 2 things:

1️⃣ How will INPUTS result in OUTPUTS (eg: an investment in sales reps results in more sales)

2️⃣ What are the SOURCES of your revenue (eg: existing customers vs customers in your pipeline vs new customers)

🪜 LEVEL 2 - ATTACH A PROFIT & LOSS (Beginner / Intermediate)

Your revenue build is important, but it's not the only area of your business you need to think about.

At this stage, you start to introduce other costs.

It's here where you'll also want to attach a dynamic headcount build, showcasing the details behind who is on your team, and who you will hire in the near future.

🪜 LEVEL 3 - INCLUDE A BALANCE SHEET & CASH FLOWS (Intermediate / Advanced)

Most companies report on the accrual basis, especially as they scale.

Under the accrual basis, the amounts reported on your profit & loss won't equate with your cash flows.

It's here where you'll want to implement a 3 statement model showcasing the movements in your Balance Sheet, allowing you to dynamically showcase cash.

🪜 LEVEL 4 - INCLUDE HISTORICAL DATA AND DASHBOARDS (advanced)

This stage involves you importing your existing data around your financial statements, allowing you to understand where you have been, and where you are going, all in one view.

With this data in place, you can refresh your forecast each month, allowing you to tap into limitless dashboards for any business case.

https://lnkd.in/p/dZqeMtKT

The 5 Layers of SEO

 



Every layer of search keeps its own scoreboard and goal:

Rankings, organic traffic and indexed pages prove you were crawled.
AI citations, AI mentions and brand references prove you were trusted.

The habit hides pages that rank well yet never become the answer, the citation or the sale.

Budgets then drift towards whatever moves the rank report (usually more SEO work).

Search has widened, so content must be found, understood, quoted and worth acting on.

Climb the stack one floor at a time:

1️⃣ Lay the SEO foundation before anything else.
Technical SEO, content quality, topical authority and internal linking get you crawled, indexed and ranked. Core Web Vitals, schema, E-E-A-T and backlinks keep it solid.

2️⃣ Shape AEO pages around the questions buyers ask.
Question-first content, short direct answers, lists, tables, FAQ schema and clear entities make answers easy to quote. Target Google AI Overviews, featured snippets, voice search, FAQ answers and rich results for zero-click visibility.

3️⃣ Give GEO engines solid reasons to cite you.
ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Claude and Copilot lean on original research, statistics and expert opinions. Brand mentions, entity consistency, fresh updates and structured content earn AI citations and brand references.

4️⃣ Make AIO work so machines read you correctly.
Semantic entities, Knowledge Graph signals, machine-readable content, structured data and consistent brand information build AI understanding and entity recognition. AI reads text, images, PDFs, videos and tables, so multimedia and freshness bring better AI visibility.

5️⃣ Finish with SXO so visitors become paying customers.
UX, page speed, navigation, trust signals, readability and CTAs shape the visit. Lift conversion rate and mobile experience, then judge it by engagement, leads, sales and revenue.

The image stacks every floor beside what to build and measure.

A ranking gets you seen.
Answers, citations and smooth visits get you chosen.

Score each floor by its own numbers.

Mark which layers this month's report actually measures. Which floor has nobody watching right now?


https://lnkd.in/p/dXuY9gU9

вторник, 13 октября 2026 г.

Top 4 Most Important Finance Concepts

 


In finance, there are countless theories, tools, and techniques. It can be overwhelming at times, especially when you’re trying to zero in on what’s truly essential.

When I started my career, I felt that same sense of information overload, feeling like I had to master everything to be competent.

But over time, I learned that some core concepts stand out – the kind of insights that make a real difference in decision-making and can transform a financial team’s impact on their company.

Today, I want to share with you the top four most important finance concepts. If you only focus on four, these are the ones that will give you the biggest bang for your buck.

The 4 Core Finance Concepts


Here are the 4 finance concepts, along with how to apply them, why they are important, use cases, and my pro tip.

#1: PVM Analysis (Price – Volume – Mix)

Exclusively, I’ve unlocked one of my PVM Analysis Video Course lessons for you.


Components of PVM Analysis

Price
This aspect examines the impact of changes in price on sales revenue while keeping quantity constant. Understanding price effects helps determine if pricing strategies are driving profitability.

Volume
Volume refers to the number of units sold. Selling more products, even at the same price and mix, can lead to higher sales. Volume effects highlight the impact of market demand and sales efforts.

Mix
The product mix effect refers to changes in the composition of products sold. Even if the total quantity and prices remain unchanged, a shift toward selling more high-margin products can increase revenue. This component reveals how different products contribute to profitability.

Why Is It Important

PVM analysis is a powerful tool that can help a company deeply understand the drivers behind revenue changes.

It breaks down sales variances into price, volume, and product mix effects, giving finance professionals clarity on how each factor contributes to overall performance.

By understanding these components, you can take actionable steps to enhance profitability, make strategic pricing decisions, and optimize the sales mix.

Use Cases

PVM analysis is particularly useful during sales reviews.

It allows you to assess how price changes, sales volumes, and shifts in product mix have affected revenue.

For instance, if sales are down, is it because of decreased volume, a drop in price, or selling a higher proportion of less expensive products?

These insights can guide strategic decisions to improve revenue.

Pro Tip

Use PVM analysis regularly – don’t wait until things go wrong.

You can proactively adjust strategies to maximize sales performance and profitability by continuously monitoring price, volume, and mix impacts.

#2: Valuation Techniques


Different Valuation Methods and When to Apply Them

Comparable Analysis
Valuation ratios from similar companies (e.g., P/E ratio, EV/EBITDA) are used to determine the target company’s market-based value.

Pros:

    • Quick and easy to implement when comparable data is available.
    • Reflects current market sentiment and investor expectations.
    • Useful for benchmarking against industry peers.

Cons:

    • Prone to market inefficiencies and biases.
    • Difficult to find truly comparable companies, especially for niche or unique businesses.
    • Does not account for company-specific factors or future performance.

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Involves calculating the present value of future cash flows using the formula Σ(Cash Flows / (1 + r)^t), where “r” is the discount rate. It reflects the intrinsic value of a company based on its future ability to generate cash flows.

Pros:

    • Provides a thorough and detailed analysis of intrinsic value.
    • Useful for assessing companies with predictable and stable cash flows.
    • Takes into account the time value of money and risk factors.

Cons:

    • Highly sensitive to assumptions about growth rates, discount rates, and future cash flows.
    • Complex and requires substantial data and analysis.
    • Difficult to use for companies with unpredictable or fluctuating cash flows, such as early-stage startups.

Net Asset-Based Valuation

Description: Calculates the market value of a company’s assets minus its liabilities to determine the net asset value. It’s often used for companies with significant tangible assets or in scenarios involving liquidation.

Pros:

    • Simple and reliable for companies with substantial tangible assets.
    • Provides a clear picture of the company’s net asset value.
    • Useful for companies in industries like real estate or manufacturing.

Cons:

    • Ignores the company’s future earnings potential.
    • Not suitable for companies with significant intangible assets, like technology firms.
    • Less relevant for going concerns that generate value through operations rather than assets.

Liquidation Valuation

Similar to the Net Asset Valuation Method but assumes assets are sold under distressed conditions, often at a lower value. Used when a company is facing bankruptcy or restructuring.

Pros:

    • Provides a worst-case scenario for investors or creditors.
    • Useful for risk assessment and during financial distress situations.
    • Helps determine the minimum value of a company’s assets.

Cons:

    • Typically yields lower values than other methods, reflecting a distressed sale.
    • Not relevant for healthy, ongoing businesses.
    • Does not account for any value generated from continued operations.

Precedent Transactions
Values a company based on multiples from past transactions involving similar companies in the same industry.

Pros:

    • Provides a realistic view of market conditions and pricing trends.
    • Useful in M&A scenarios where understanding deal dynamics is critical.
    • Captures industry-specific premiums, such as those for strategic synergies.

Cons:

    • Data may be difficult to obtain or inconsistent.
    • Each transaction has unique circumstances, making it hard to generalize.
    • Historical deals may not reflect current market conditions or future trends.

Why Is It Important

Valuation is at the heart of finance, as it determines how much a business or asset is worth.

Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, invest, or simply understand the financial health of your company, knowing how to value a company or asset is essential.

Mastering valuation helps make informed decisions and identify opportunities others might overlook.

Use Cases

Different situations call for different valuation approaches.

The Income Approach, using methods like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), is best for valuing companies with predictable future cash flows to determine intrinsic value.

The market approach, with methods like comparative analysis and precedent transactions, is useful when ample market data is available to reflect current market sentiment and trends.

The Cost Approach, employing the Net Asset Method and Liquidation Valuation, is ideal for assessing asset-heavy or distressed companies, focusing on tangible asset value minus liabilities.

Pro Tip

Don’t rely on a single valuation method. Different scenarios require different approaches, and combining multiple techniques (when possible) gives a more rounded view of a company’s worth.

#3: Budget Process

Steps in the Budget Process

In this video, I explain to you the details of the key steps for creating a successful budget.

Set Expectations with Management
Begin by aligning financial goals with management expectations to ensure everyone is on the same page regarding revenue, expenses, and growth targets.

Sales Forecasting
Develop a sales forecast that forms the basis of the entire budget. This involves assessing market conditions and predicting future sales.

Operational Plan
Create an operational plan that includes production schedules, inventory management, and resource allocation.

Resource Allocation
Identify and allocate the resources needed to support the operational plan, including staffing, raw materials, and technology.

Standard Costs and Overhead
Calculate standard costs and overhead to understand the fixed and variable expenses involved in production.

Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement
Develop these financial statements to provide a complete picture of the company’s financial health, aligning projected revenues and costs.

Why Is It Important

A well-planned budget is a roadmap for business success. It sets financial expectations, guides spending, and aligns resources with strategic goals.

A solid budget process helps mitigate risks, manage cash flow, and ensure that all departments work toward the company’s financial targets.

Use Cases

The budget process begins with setting expectations with management and proceeds through forecasting sales, creating operational plans, and determining resources.

Once standard costs and overhead are calculated, companies create income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements.

This comprehensive approach ensures that every aspect of the business is aligned and adequately funded.

Pro Tip

#4: Reducing Costs


How to Do It

Reducing costs can be approached in three main ways:

Incremental ideas (-10%)
Start with smaller, gradual changes, such as gaining control over miscellaneous spending, reducing consulting services, or cutting department-specific expenses. These actions can lead to moderate savings while maintaining stability.

Redesign ideas (-20%)
Take a more significant step by redesigning workflows and eliminating inefficiencies. This might involve reducing business requirements, automating processes, or removing unnecessary liaisons and coordinators.

Revamp ideas (-30%)
For a deeper impact, consider restructuring cross-department activities, eliminating non-essential programs, or shifting tasks to more efficient locations. This is a comprehensive approach that can lead to substantial savings.

Why Is It Important

Reducing costs is crucial for any business aiming to remain competitive and increase profitability.

A company’s ability to manage and control costs can be the key difference between thriving in the market and falling behind.

Effective cost reduction not only improves the bottom line but also ensures the business has enough resources to invest in growth areas, innovation, and resilience during tough times.

Use Cases

Companies can implement cost-reduction strategies in different ways. Incremental ideas, such as reducing miscellaneous spending or scaling back consulting services, help control costs on a smaller scale.

Redesign ideas, like automating processes or reducing business requirements, allow for more significant savings.

Finally, revamping ideas, such as eliminating unnecessary programs or restructuring cross-department activities, provides deeper, structural reductions to expenses.

Pro Tip

Take a systematic approach to reducing costs. Start with incremental changes and gradually move to redesign and revamp efforts.

This way, your team can manage change more effectively and avoid unnecessary disruptions.

Final Thoughts

These four finance concepts – reducing costs, valuation techniques, the budget process, and PVM analysis – aren’t just theoretical concepts; they’re practical tools you can use to make a real impact.

By learning how to manage costs, accurately value a business, create a solid budget, and analyze price, volume, and mix, you’re positioning yourself as a crucial part of your company’s success.

These concepts are interconnected, and understanding them will help you make smarter decisions, optimize resources, and ultimately contribute to the growth and profitability of your organization.

Take the time to master them, and you’ll become an invaluable asset to your team.

FAQ

Q: How can I effectively reduce costs using incremental, redesign, and revamp ideas?

A: Reducing costs can be approached in stages. Start with incremental reductions to cut minor expenses, then move to redesign initiatives to streamline processes, and finally, use revamp strategies for bigger changes. This method ensures smoother implementation and effective cost management.

Q: When should I apply different valuation techniques?

A: Use Comparable Analysis when you have reliable data from similar companies, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) for assessing intrinsic value when future cash flows are predictable, Net Asset Valuation Method for asset-heavy companies or when the going concern is in question, Liquidation Valuation in distressed scenarios, and Precedent Transactions for M&A, based on industry deal benchmarks. Applying multiple methods together is beneficial, as they complement each other and provide a more comprehensive and accurate assessment of value.

Q: What are the key steps involved in the budget process?

A: The budget process involves setting expectations with management, forecasting sales, creating an operational plan, allocating resources, calculating standard costs and overhead, and developing financial statements like income, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. Reviewing the budget monthly ensures financial alignment.

Q: What do price, volume, and mix mean in PVM analysis?

A: Price refers to the impact of price changes on sales revenue, volume represents the effect of selling more units, and mix shows how selling a different combination of products affects revenue. Understanding these components provides clarity on revenue drivers and helps guide better strategic decisions.

Q: How can I use PVM analysis to improve profitability?

A: Regularly use PVM analysis to understand how price, volume, and product mix affect sales revenue. This can help identify areas where adjustments can increase profitability, such as improving pricing strategies or focusing on higher-margin products. You can apply discounted cash flow (DCF) to personal investments by estimating future cash flows from an asset (like rental income) and discounting them to present value. This helps in assessing whether an investment is worthwhile.


https://tinyurl.com/444educf