By Adrienne Tan
Over the last 5 years, Product Management has matured in leaps and bounds. It has advanced in the areas of product process (Discovery, Design & Delivery) and product-led advocacy. But that doesn’t mean we have self-actualised as a practice, there is a way to go yet.
One key opportunity for improvement is to expand our sights beyond the 6 to 12-month roadmaps, give ourselves the space to imagine and accelerate new product possibilities. For Product Management to be the engine of growth, we must anticipate the future to help businesses transform and conceive new products repeatedly.
According to Dr Nadya Zhexembayeva,
To ride the wave of change, organisations need to reinvent their products and their businesses every 3.5 years.
She claims;
We all know the next big crisis is coming. We don’t know when, why, or what will take place, but history is clear: business is cyclical, and a new crisis is just around the corner.
Nadya spoke about the rapid force of change and reinvention in 2015, 7 years before COVID accelerated our pace of life and work. Her message held true in 2015 and is even more important today. If we don’t plan to change, or ‘ride the wave’ of change, change will be forced upon our products and organisations.
A study by Gulati, Nohria and Wohlgezogen showed that;
17% of the 4,700 public companies did not survive the 1980 crisis, the 1990 slowdown, and the 2000 bust. They went bankrupt, were acquired, or became private.
Notably, according to the authors, “only a small number of companies—approximately 9% of their sample—flourished after a slowdown, doing better on key financial parameters than they had before it and outperforming rivals in their industry by at least 10% in terms of sales and profits growth.”
But, predicting the future and working to defend our organisations is challenging.
Michael More an Accenture Researcher writes;
We mistakenly base our predictions on our past experiences. We interpret new information as fitting into our existing mental models and beliefs.
Using a framework to guide our actions is one way to reduce our inherent biases.
The Product Navigation framework is a new approach to anticipating and charting a path to an uncertain future. It is also the next evolution of our practice.
McKinsey’s Three Horizon Model
When conceptualising our next evolution as a practice, a useful model is the Mckinsey Three Horizon Model. This model has helped guide the sequencing of product investments over a period of time.
- Horizon 1 ideas provide continuous innovation to a company’s existing business model and core capabilities in the short term.
- Horizon 2 ideas extend a company’s existing business model and core capabilities to new customers, markets, or targets.
- Horizon 3 is the creation of new capabilities and new business to take advantage of or respond to disruptive opportunities or counter disruption.
Horizon 1 and 2 aptly describes Product Management’s focus areas.
Product Management practitioners wield the typical Discovery, Design and Delivery processes to create a new product idea, feature or product experience. We’re well-schooled in supporting organisations to become product-led, shifting cultural attitudes that are the antithesis of good product behaviours.
We’ve expanded our boundaries to work synchronously with design, engineering and growth experts for the greater good of customers. We’ve demonstrated time and time again that we can delight our customers, keep our competitors at bay and contribute to business goals.
We perform well in solving challenges presented in Horizon 1 and 2. But the problem is, our ability to exploit the future will be reduced if we spend close to 100% of our efforts and resources on H1 and H2.
What’s Next For Product Management?
The next advancement in Product Management maturity will be to chart ways to deliver new, yet to be explored forms of value in environments that are evolving quickly. Product Management has to conceive new ways of operating to enable its practitioners to tackle complex problems such as climate change, ethics, digital pollution, infectious diseases, food insecurity and poverty.
We have to cleverly navigate the deluge of new technology. We also have to consider how to fruitfully use new technology in the coming decade. Technology trends are moving faster than our ability to create usable products. It is casting shadows on our roadmaps.
Trends from connected devices to distributed IT infrastructure, artificial intelligence, next-generation materials, bio revolution and more will have a noticeable impact on our work. The Pandemic has also made the future visible. The ‘future’ is not distant or inaccessible. The future is here with us in the present, giving us limited time to react.
Horizon 3 Is Already Here
Our current product approach is insufficient to embrace and take advantage of the deluge of change. We need to add a new, nimble and pragmatic approach to draw our gaze beyond the current environment. An approach that enables us to secure our future and build Horizon 3 experiences today.
This means that we have to run multiple product tracks discovering and delivering new products for each of the 3 horizons.
Steve Blank writes;
The three horizons are no longer bounded by time. Today, disruptive Horizon 3 ideas can be delivered as fast as ideas for Horizon 1 in the existing product line. It’s the speed of deployment of Horizon 3 products, strategies, and capabilities that are a devastating upset to the status quo.
Steve offers four ways to counteract our complacency and begin building for Horizon 3. He summarises that companies can:
- Incentivise external resources to focus on your goal or mission
- Acquire external innovators who can operate at the speed of the disruptors
- Rapidly copy the new disruptive innovators and use the incumbent’s business model to dominate
- Innovate better than the disrupters
Who Best To Innovate Better Than The Disrupters?
Of Steve’s advice, point 4 is within Product Management’s sphere of control. If we cast our eyes across the organisation, Product Management is the most likely function that is capable of innovating. We have the know-how, the experience and more importantly, the desire to bring to bear new human experiences. We need to expand our systems to accommodate Horizon 3 and run parallel product management paths to create products for today and tomorrow.
Product Navigation: How to Chart a Course to an Uncertain Future
Product Navigation is the new product framework based on the time tested rules of voyage planning. Voyage planning is;
A procedure a crew must comply with before relocating a ship from one mooring to another. It comprises a theoretical planning stage before the departure as well as a practical implementation stage during navigation.
The rules of voyage planning allow a ship to set sail on a voyage to a land it’s never seen and arrive safely at that chosen destination. A passage plan is the output of voyage planning and according to sailors, it is vital for successful ship relocation. Conversely, a lack of a plan leads to serious consequences.
The Product Navigation Framework offers a plan as well as practical tools. The product team can use the framework to imagine the customer of tomorrow and chart the route for new products successfully.
The Product Navigation Framework comprises the following steps:
At a high level;
Gaze outside-in to identify new trends that will materially impact our future. Social, behavioural, economic and technological changes are happening faster than ever Gazing allows us to see the Horizon 3 opportunities that allow us to make quantum leaps forward.
Gazing helps us discern how to benefit from change rather than be disrupted as we set a new destination in an uncertain future.
Gaze is the first step in the Product Navigation framework. It is perhaps the most exciting step because it signals the beginning of the journey. It is a chance to pioneer, let our imaginations take hold and carve out new ambitions in faraway lands. It offers a window into Horizon 3 opportunities and beyond.
What is it?
Gaze gives us permission to step out of our day-to-day and to meet the future head-on, no matter how uncomfortable it may be. Our imaginations should be stretched by outside-in knowledge, allowing us to conceptualise where new adventures await and where opportunities lie for new products and organisations in the future.
Gaze is more than a lightweight review of direct and indirect competitors in the current marketplace (Horizon 1 and 2). It is a thorough assessment of what the future might hold. It is broad in scope and must cover challenging factors such as health, conflict, politics, social changes, the environment as well as technology.
Goal
The goal of Gaze is to place a bet and set a new destination to an uncertain future. To do that, we’ll explore multiple futures and discern how to benefit from the onslaught of change rather than be disrupted unexpectedly. Unlike the product processes applied in Horizon 1 and 2, at the end of Gaze, the team selects a future option to pursue and Appraise.
How do we Gaze?
Gazing isn’t something we are taught or even asked to do as Product Managers. In many ways, Gaze is counterintuitive to our current product processes.
To Gaze, we have to set aside the space (digital, physical and mental) and time to give ourselves the capacity to imagine what the future holds. We have to engage with a wide range of stakeholders internal and external to gaze effectively. Together, we should derive an option that we might find difficult to conceptualise.
We must push ourselves beyond our comfort zone and Gaze into the future to:
- Explore – Patterns impacting our future
- Imagine – A multitude of potential futures
- Set – A destination for the future
1. Explore
Exploring a new, exciting destination requires a multidisciplinary team. Form a team of people that are curious and ambitious, and who are prepared to dedicate time to Explore. The team should include external participants and internal stakeholders (“Explorers”).
Explorers should share their insights and wisdom about the future with each other. Having a broad data set will enable Explorers to collectively look for signals and weave these into impactful patterns of the future.
Ways that Explorers may choose to envision the future are to:
Look Back To Build Confidence
It’s an easier exercise to look back at how far we’ve progressed as a society than to look forward. Even though the past does not predicate the future, using this technique as a mental exercise gives Explorers the permission to be brave. When we look back we can see and track the large societal, economic, technological, environmental and political milestones that have changed the way we do business. Consequently, we get a strong sense of how much has changed. We begin to feel confident that we can make similar or greater strides in the future. This enables Explorers to ignite their imaginations and begin to anticipate futures that look nothing like today.
Look For Signals
Read extensively and think broadly. Don’t limit research to current news and world affairs. Break out of any comfort zone or field of expertise, consider differing opinions, explore other industries or alternate professions. Hear the concerns of different socioeconomic groups and explore social and political trends impacting other areas of the world.
The information presented during the discussions may be divergent, but be curious and open at this early stage. Share information openly with your fellow Explorers, probe and ask questions of each other. This is not the time to consider feasibility or limit options to those close to the current state.
As you share information, cluster the data that you’ve gathered, identify signals that are strong and weak, and which are relevant (or irrelevant) for our organisation.
Gartner writes that a strong signal is,
A piece of information, activity and/or event that indicates an impending change that might have an impact on your business pattern.
To look for strong signals, place each data point on a (physical or digital) post-it note and make it visible to the whole Explorer team.
Example:
- Social Signals:
- A focus on reducing individual impact on the environment, consumers have anxiety over choosing the most environmentally-conscious option and are spending a lot of time researching
- Greater expectations from consumers of companies to have a social & environmental impact
- Technological Signals:
- Transport & logistics are developing electric fleets now that battery life & range is increasing
- Recycling technology is improving but is having issues with demand for recycled products
- Plastics that are not made from fossil fuels are in infancy (e.g., bio-packaging from waste)
- Carbon-neutral energy is getting cheaper & cheaper
- Environmental Signals:
- Climate warming caused natural disasters & extinctions more this year then ever before
- Waste buildup in the environment is causing extinction & food chain toxicity
- Air quality is decreasing in industrialised areas burning fossil fuels & waste (after temporary improvement in COVID lockdowns)
Identify Impactful Patterns
As a team, begin to identify and group similar items together to form a pattern. Steve Batty offers guidance on pattern recognition from signals.
Example:
Social, technological & environmental trends are pushing towards zero or a minimal human impact future as it comes to carbon emissions & waste
To further cement our findings, test our thinking by asking the following question;
“What are we confident & less confident in with this pattern?”
Example:
We are confident that consumers will continue to pursue social change as it comes to the environment. We are confident environmental impacts will continue without this change.
We are confident zero-emissions energy & transport will be the way of the future – the recent past has seen it get cheaper and more reliable. We are confident we will be able to find suppliers to aid us in adoption of these technologies in the near future.
We are less confident in the fate of waste management. Indications are for building waste and lack of cyclic consumption of recycled products. Waste is a big issue for us going into the future.
Create A Destination Impact Statement
Weave the pattern into a Destination Impact Statement and understand the impact of the future destination on the organisation. The Destination Impact Statement should contain the following information to guide Explorers during the journey:
We will offer <the future destination> by <timeframe> to <solve this problem for society> and <secure this future> for our organisation. If we don’t reach our <destination>, <society will not progress in this way>. If we do not offer this future, <The organisation will be worse off in this way>.
Example:
We will offer a carbon & plastic net-zero shopping experience by 2030 in all our stores to reduce the impact of shopping on the planet. If we don’t significantly reduce carbon and plastic waste, the earth’s temperatures will rise and waste will continue to build up. If we do not offer this future, our customers will find alternative solutions, our revenues will diminish and our organisation may become obsolete.
2. Imagine
We should imagine a distant future and derive several options for our organisation. To do that, use the Destination Impact Statement and challenge the narrative and its impact on our organisation.
Ask “What If”
‘What If’ thinking helps us consider different possibilities and challenge assumptions at the same time. It helps Explorers create scenarios and consider what barriers would still be present if some of the adjacent problems were solved. This will help the team identify long-standing problems in a market that has advanced past a certain point in the future.
Example:
What if we had zero emissions energy and electric fleets available today? What would be our major barriers to a zero emissions & plastic waste future?
In this environment, our assumptions are that suppliers have eliminated our carbon footprint from energy & logistics. In this future, waste and consumer confidence is still an issue, including:
- The production of packaging & food waste is high
- There is a limited demand for recycled products
- Consumer confidence in selecting options with environmental impact is still low
- There is limited wider industry uptake of technologies to reduce plastic waste & carbon emissions – for example, our product suppliers have not changed their choices
At this early stage, Explorers should spend the time devising multiple scenarios so that they can diagnose different problems.
Undertake Scenario Gaming
Next, we need to immerse ourselves in these scenarios. Scenario Gaming allows us to steep ourselves in that future world and find options that exist at that time. While Scenario Gaming is not predictive of our final destination, it does offer an opportunity to test the validity of our scenarios and options to address them in a simulated environment. This will help us prioritise and decide on the destination we want to Appraise.
Scenario Gaming sessions must be carefully constructed. To begin, utilise the ‘What If’ scenarios we imagined to form the basis of immersive environments where all gameplay takes place. Assign each Explorer a role in each Scenario Gaming session to determine the course of the story. During this process, the narrative is driven by each player as they make decisions and face consequences.
After these sessions, as a team, document each scenario and turn each scenario into Destination Options to help us select a way forward into the future.
The Destination Options should include:
- What meaningful change will your organisation make to take a step towards securing the future destination?
- How will this benefit the organisation of the future?
<Future option>. This will <providing organisational benefits>.
Example:
We will use our ready access to carbon-neutral energy to work on Destination Options to:
- Give consumers ready information in-store or online to assess products for carbon & waste impact. This will encourage suppliers to change as consumers vote with their feet, and give us a competitive edge as this proprietary information & rating algorithm will only be available when shopping with us.
- Re-use the waste we produce to create renewable or reusable packaging that does not depend on natural gas and petroleum. This will create an additional revenue stream, re-use the waste we create and encourage suppliers to use packaging with lower environmental impact.
3. Set
It’s now time to place bets on our future. It can be difficult to choose an option, but making a choice for what we want the future to be is essential for the next step of Appraising.
As a team, select a Destination Impact Statement and Destination Option that the organisation should pursue and invest in. The selection criteria should be based on:
- The probability of the Destination Statement occurring,
- The magnitude of the impact of that option on reaching the Destination,
- The velocity of the impact of that option on moving us to the ideal Destination.
Create a Final Destination Statement
Once you have selected the highest impact destination and option, combine them together in a final Destination Statement. It can also be useful to turn this long-form destination statement into a ‘marketable’ statement.
Our Destination:
We will offer a carbon & plastic net-zero shopping experience by 2030 in all our stores to reduce the impact of shopping on the planet. If we don’t significantly reduce carbon and plastic waste, the earth’s temperatures will rise and waste will continue to build up. If we do not offer this future, our customers will find alternative solutions, our revenues will diminish and our organisation may become obsolete.
We will re-use our waste to create renewable packaging that does not depend on natural gas and petroleum. This will create an additional revenue stream, re-use the waste we create and encourage suppliers to use packaging with lower environmental impact.
Our Destination (marketable statement):
Create renewable plastic packaging from re-used waste and non-fossil fuels.
By the end of Gaze, we have a Destination that we want to pursue for the future. The team must have a strong affinity with the Destination and want to find ways to deliver on it.
Appraise
Appraise what is required to be able to reach the chosen destination.
The organisation may need to create a different operating environment, amass brand-new technology and systems, or appoint new people to lead the charge into the future.
Appraising identifies the organisational gaps and barriers to making the immense leap forward and avoiding running aground along the way. It ensures the organisation understands what’s required to take this quantum leap forward.
Appraise is the second step in the Product Navigation Framework. At this point, the team must have a Destination Statement to Appraise so that we can begin to make the future more of a reality. It is the first opportunity to examine what the organisation has, and what it will need to reach its destination. It is also time to expose the risk of voyaging to the destination. Appraise is a step that cannot be completed hastily. It requires commitment, research, analysis and much debate.
What is it?
Appraise what is needed to begin the journey into the unknown. More than likely, the organisation of today will need to change in some manner to deliver us to the destination. We may need a different operating environment, to amass brand-new technology and systems, acquire new companies, and appoint new people to lead the charge into the future. During Appraise the team identifies the organisational capital (physical and intellectual) required to take the leap forward and avoid running aground along the way.
Goal
The goal of Appraise is to expose the risks and what is required to Chart the path. The first step is to understand what is needed to deliver us to the destination. This will inform how we bridge the gaps we have and remove any barriers as we progress through our journey. Finally, we want to assess and document the risks associated with this journey and start advocating.
How do we Appraise?
- Investigate – The organisation capital required to journey to the destination
- Compare – Our future organisational capital needs to our current organisational capital and assess the risks of journeying to the new destination
- Advocate – Align stakeholders and advocate for the future destination
1. Investigate
We have to consider how the organisation will deliver the new future by actioning the next level of research – which is more detailed and in-depth than the initial exploration we performed in Gaze.
To continue from our example, we will investigate how to deliver the following:
We will offer a carbon & plastic net-zero shopping experience by 2030 in all our stores to reduce the impact of shopping on the planet. If we don’t significantly reduce carbon and plastic waste, the earth’s temperatures will rise and waste will continue to build up. If we do not offer this future, our customers will find alternative solutions, our revenues will diminish and our organisation may become obsolete.
We will re-use our waste to create renewable packaging that does not depend on natural gas and petroleum. This will create an additional revenue stream, re-use the waste we create and encourage suppliers to use packaging with lower environmental impact.
From this statement, brainstorm and group-source what organisational capital is required to reach the destination. Include diverse stakeholders, as organisational capital requirements will be widespread.
Organisational capital includes but is not limited to:
- Technology – tangible materials, systems and tools that are used to innovate, scale and operate businesses, products and services.
- Intellectual Property – intangible, original knowledge that is created to innovate, scale and operate businesses, products and services.
- Commercial Property – land and buildings used to support innovation, scaling and the operations of businesses, products and services.
- Culture – the company values, mindset, behaviours, structures, traits and norms that empower innovation, scaling and the operations of businesses, products and services.
- Work Experiences – gained work experiences, skills and talents that enable innovation, scaling and the operations of businesses, products and services.
- Economic Capital – the money and commercial models used to innovate, scale and operate businesses, products and services.
- Partnerships – the relationships formed to innovate, scale and operate businesses, products and services.
- Organisational Processes – a series of interlocking actions taken to innovate, scale and operate businesses, products and services.
Here are some ways to investigate how to reach your destination:
- Literature Review
The simplest way to begin investigations is to conduct a literature review and create an Ecosystem Map that lists industry bodies, experts, suppliers, providers, would-be competitors and consultants. Utilise non-traditional platforms such as Reddit and Twitter to learn more about the ecosystem.
If possible, draw the interconnections between each of the parties to understand the strong and weak ties and prioritise companies or persons of interest.
- Global Site Visits
Using the Ecosystem Map, pinpoint and visit companies that the Appraisers can learn from. Visit as a small, cross-functional team to obtain a broader sense of what it takes to successfully deliver new opportunities in that environment.
Prepare before each visit by doing research on the companies the team is visiting. This will help Appraisers create detailed questions to uncover details about the technical aspects of operating in the industry, plus the cultural aspects required to operate well.
When on-site, watch how and where work is being conducted, understand what is required to operate in that industry or market. Probe about the team culture and how they operate. Understand the skills required to build as well as operate the business. Learn from their challenges and more importantly, how they evolved from their mistakes.
Share insights as a team and summarise key learnings after each site visit.
- Speak To Industry Experts
Using the Ecosystem Map, select target industry experts to set up a time to meet. Assign team members and different industry experts to approach.
To ensure that the time with the industry expert is used wisely, create a detailed set of questions and an interview plan to target the right information and advice. The questions asked should be related to their expertise, so it is important to read their publications and opinions.
Compile key learnings after each discussion into a 1-pager presenting the benefits and disadvantages of different approaches and options. Importantly, share amongst the team to solicit deeper discussion.
2. Compare
After the Investigation activities, the team should gather to apply the research and brainstorm the capital required to journey to the destination. Systematically detail the organisational capital required to reach the destination and indicate when it will be needed – immediately, medium-term or late in the journey. This will help to prioritise the most important elements that are critical to beginning the journey.
Then, conduct a thorough audit of the current organisational capital to determine the gaps. Stakeholders across the organisation will be needed to help assess the current state and gaps.
Assessing the risks of this journey is another crucial part of Appraise. Identify and categorise the types of risk associated with each gap the team has identified. Understand if these risks are preventable (usually to do with internal process & capability), external (to do with external factors, like competitors) or strategic (to do with the destination selected). Plans can be set in the next stage of Chart to mitigate preventable risks, while monitoring can be set for external and strategic risks.
Following on from our example, create an Appraise Comparison Table:
High (Immediate impacts – must be filled now in order to start Voyage) |
|
| Preventable:
External:
|
Medium (Medium term impacts on Journey, will need to be filled along the way) |
|
| Preventable:
External:
Strategic:
|
Low (Long term impacts to success of journey) |
|
| Preventable:
External:
Strategic:
|
While it is unlikely that we’ll know everything we will need for the entire journey, Appraising will broadly help us establish what our requirements are before we begin the Voyage.
3. Advocate
Every journey needs supporters. As a part of Appraise, the team has to probe and monitor the sentiment of key stakeholders; those who are funding the journey and those who are non-believers. Appraisers will have to determine our key stakeholders’ risk appetite and their desire to reach the future destination through the chosen solution. This will enable Appraisers to formulate and communicate appropriate information. For an undertaking of this size, use a Stakeholder Map to identify and strategically appraise each stakeholder to determine the level of advocacy the team can expect to receive during the journey.
Continue to share and reinforce the story of the future destination through regular roadshows. Keep stakeholders motivated by showing progress even at this early stage, and welcoming their questions and concerns during each roadshow.
Appraisers have yet to Chart the journey or begin the Voyage, so regular, broad communications to the whole of the company are not required for now. At this stage, it’s more important to keep the communications to a small group.
By the end of Appraise, we have a more detailed understanding of what will be needed to reach the future destination. The journey may seem daunting, but the bravest destinations are always far from our current state.
Chart
Chart a course to ensure the team and organisation understands the path we’re taking.
Every course has uncertainty, but charting produces a Voyage Plan with milestones and expected course changes. While it is essential the team is comfortable with the unknown, the Voyage Plan offers our stakeholders assurance that we are meeting the key criteria of success.
The Plan helps track and makes our progress visible for all to see. With a Voyage Plan, we are set to sail.
Chart is the third step in the Product Navigation Framework. Charting signifies that we are ready to plan the journey to our future destination. At this stage, the core team is solidified but will require more specialised assistance and expertise to inform the design and plan the route.
What is it?
Charting ensures the team and the organisation understands the route we’re taking. Every journey has uncertainty, but charting produces a Voyage Blueprint as well as a Voyage Plan with milestones and potential changes. While it is essential the team is comfortable with the unknown, the Voyage Plan offers our stakeholders assurance that we have an understanding of the conditions for success. With a Voyage Plan, we are set to sail.
Goal
The goals of Chart are to garner the voyage’s guiding principles, produce a Voyage Plan and assemble the initial provisions for the journey. The organisation’s confidence will continue to lift as we more deeply detail the voyage, the timeframe and anticipate any challenges that we may encounter along the way.
How do we Chart?
- Design – The Voyage Blueprint to manage the unknowns and set principles for making decisions
- Plan – The route with milestones to keep the voyage on track
- Provision – The team with the requirements to begin the journey, knowing that we’ll stop to refuel along the way
1. Design
Research about the industry, market, as well as our organisation has already been completed in Appraise. In Chart, apply the team’s insights (gaps and risks) and information (expert advice) to begin designing the Voyage Blueprint.
The Blueprint is a high-level schematic of how the team will approach the Voyage. The benefit of having a Blueprint is that it guides team behaviour and empowers the team to make decisions. This Voyage is a significant strategic undertaking for the organisation; it will require alignment and autonomy to drive forward to the destination. It cannot rely on management or executive oversight and supervision to reach the future destination, as the goal must be to manage through principles rather than people.
The Voyage Blueprint contains but is not limited to:
- The Voyage Method – The approach we’ll take to bridge the high and medium-term organisational gaps
- Team Engagement Principles – Ways we’ll engage with our immediate team, other internal teams and external partners
- Decision principles – How will the team be empowered to make decisions on:
- Problems – Guidelines to help the team solve strategic and operational problems during the Voyage
- Investment – Guidelines to assist the team make appropriate financial decisions
The Voyage Blueprint Example:
The Voyage Method: | Mixed Resource Method Develop internal capability to lead the journey and to develop key IP, outsource where appropriate and partner with experts to get to market within the expected timeframe |
Team Engagement Principles: | Immediate Team
Other Internal Teams
External Partners
|
Decision Principles: | When solving problems:
When considering investments:
|
Creating the Blueprint requires engagement with specific functional teams that are aligned to each section contained in the Blueprint. The immediate team should brainstorm possible unforeseen scenarios or events that they may encounter during the journey. The risks identified in Appraise can be used to prime these scenarios.
From there, the team should design the Team Engagement Principles to manage any friction or challenges that may arise during these events. Using the scenarios as a guide, co-create the Investment Principles with the finance team. The Voyage Method and Decision Principles when created require endorsement from executives. Formal executive endorsement is vital because the Voyage Blueprint provides the team with the journey’s decision-making guidelines.
The Voyage Blueprint should not be altered regularly. Charters should use the Voyage Blueprint like a compass and refer to it regularly throughout the journey. Like a compass, the intent of the Blueprint is to ensure that the whole team is pointing in the same direction; behaving and solving problems in the same way.
2. Plan
It can be difficult to plan for Horizon 1 improvements, so planning for Horizon 3 can feel impossible. With so many uncertainties, it can be tempting not to plan. But, without a plan, it is challenging to organise people and resources to begin the journey.
To overcome this challenge, think of the Voyage Plan as a hypothesis of the ‘safest, most favourable and economical route’ to the future destination.
The Voyage Plan outlines the preferred route the journey should take. Part of designing that route means articulating and planning for the known unknowns, things we’re aware of but do not understand how to resolve. This Voyage Plan should also include alternative routes that prepare the team for unexpected conditions when the preferred route is no longer tenable. The team can decide when the original route is no longer executable following the decision principles outlined in the Voyage Blueprint.
Importantly, the Voyage Plan is to be designed in conjunction with the Voyage Blueprint. Stakeholder discussions and the process of creating each artefact will inform the other. It is expected that the Blueprint remains fairly static. The Voyage Plan, however, is expected to be modified frequently as we gain more information mid-journey.
The Voyage Plan is at its heart a communication tool and should be referred to constantly during the journey. Making the Voyage Plan visible can be useful as it allows the team to plot where they are on the journey during subsequent stages.
The Voyage Plan Example:
Voyage Method | Mixed Resource Method Develop internal capability to lead the journey and to develop key IP, outsource where appropriate and partner with experts to get to market within the expected timeframe |
Target Duration | 5 Years |
Milestones |
|
Preferred Route | We believe the safest, most favourable and economical route to the future destination to be:
|
Known Unknowns | There are several unknowns that may alter this route:
|
Alternative Route | We believe the next best route to the future destination to be:
|
Once the team has a clear mental model of the Voyage Plan and can confidently articulate the Plan to stakeholders, it’s time to provision for the initial part of the journey.
3. Provision
The first step of Provision is to unlock the first tranche of funding. Launching Horizon 3 products is a financially intensive undertaking and the type and amount of resources required to complete this feat are usually not available in the day-to-day, operational budgets. A key part of Appraise was advocating and raising the organisation’s confidence, this should continue as planning solidifies the journey in Chart.
While it is difficult to accurately forecast the investment return at this early stage, what we can call attention to are the ramifications for the organisation’s future if it does not undertake this crucial journey. Only then will we be able to unlock the first round of funding.
Charters also have to check that the current organisational capital required to fuel the journey is accessible and is in order. Is the Provision funding adequate to fill the high-priority gaps identified in Appraise, and by when will they be filled? If the required organisational capital isn’t available, this may delay the beginning of the Voyage or it may mean that Charters have to find substitutes.
The excitement of the journey now begins to take hold as Chart comes to an end. The journey seems less daunting, and more attainable, as we work as a team to Voyage to the future. Let’s go!
Voyage
This journey is unlike the journeys we’ve taken before.
We have to prepare the team and the organisation to Voyage into an uncertain future. Make it clear that there will be rough seas and uneasiness during this time. Delivery is not immediate, motivation wanes, unexpected hurdles surface, funding diminishes and plans deteriorate.
But, there are principles to follow and proven tasks to execute that keep the team and organisation safe along the way.
Voyage helps us treat the Voyage Plan as a living document and to course-correct as new information arises so that we can arrive at the final destination.
Voyage is the fourth step in the Product Navigation Framework. The team leaves Chart and begins Voyage with the Voyage Blueprint and Voyage Plan – a set of principles, the preferred route, and initial provisions. The team departs on the journey with excitement and support from the organisation.
What is it?
Voyage is the most demanding part of our journey, it is where we move closer to our destination. Prepare the team and the organisation for rough seas and uncertainty during this journey. Delivery is not immediate, motivation wanes, unexpected hurdles surface and plans change.
But, there are principles to follow and tasks to undertake. This will keep the team and organisation focused and safe along the way.
Goal
The goal of Voyage is to undertake the journey to the destination and stay alert to the changing environmental, technical and cultural conditions. Key to Voyage is to keep the team and stakeholders motivated so that Voyagers can arrive at the final destination safely and successfully.
How do we Voyage?
- Depart – on the journey
- Undertake – the tasks to reach each milestone
- Motivate – the team throughout the whole voyage
1. Depart
Establish and communicate the departure date to the team and key stakeholders in the organisation. The intent is to depart on the set date but there may be circumstances that may prevent Voyagers from adhering to the date. Essential to departure is that you are adequately provisioned leaving Chart – but be aware that there may never be ‘optimal’ conditions for departure, and Voyagers should not wait forever.
Voyagers should kick off this significant journey formally. This may take the form of a launch to key internal stakeholders or to the whole organisation. Determining who to include in the Voyage Launch is a strategic decision and should not be left to one individual to decide.
Before the departure, consider which stakeholders need to keep track of the journey, these will need regular updates and will be key supporters or detractors during Voyage. When that has been identified, Voyagers will have to communicate the team’s key roles and responsibilities so that stakeholders know who to approach for information.
Decide when the team will chronicle and share the progress of the journey and make available updates to the Voyage Plan. A set of common Q&As that are built and added to across the Voyage can help to ensure that the key stakeholders have information when they need it, and that new stakeholders can be onboarded to the Voyage faster.
2. Undertake
As a first step, Voyagers will create a Voyage Backlog for at least the first two milestones of the journey – or any milestones that need to be started or completed early in Voyage. Again, it may seem counterintuitive to produce a Voyage Backlog when there are so many unknowns, but having one will keep the team focused. View the Backlog as the next layer of scaffolding, shoring up for the journey ahead.
The Voyage Backlog should structure a series of tasks detailing how and when the team will achieve each of the first few milestones using the Preferred Route. These tasks should be sequenced and grouped logically in sprints, prioritised and assigned to the person who will be responsible for completing the task within the timeframe.
Here is an example of a Voyage Backlog:
First Milestone: | Create a comprehensive action plan for the Voyage | ||
Timeframe: | May 2022 to July 2022 | ||
Tasks | When | Priority | Responsible |
| Sprint 1 | High | Journey Lead |
| Sprint 1 | High | Journey Lead |
| Sprint 2 | High | HR Manager |
Second Milestone: | Secure a partner for the delivery of a renewable plastics formula | ||
Timeframe: | August 2022 to December 2024 | ||
| Sprint 1 | High | Journey Lead R&D Manager |
| Sprint 2 | High | R&D Manager |
| Sprint 2 | High | Legal Manager |
| Sprint 3-15 | Medium | Journey Lead R&D Manager |
| Sprint 16 | Medium | Journey Lead R&D Manager |
| Sprint 16 | Medium | Legal Manager |
| Sprint 17-18 | Medium | R&D Manager Partner Manager |
Voyagers will undertake tasks, update the Backlog and incrementally add more tasks to build out the Backlog as they proceed. During this time, Voyagers will become aware of their ability to perform tasks that are within the scope of their capabilities and within the allocated time. These may be internal challenges or external changes that may prevent task completion or require changes to the Backlog.
Creating rituals as part of Voyage to quickly call out challenges impacting the Preferred Route early on is essential. This allows the team to work together to update their assumptions and course correct. To do this well, Voyagers should design an optimal meeting cadence that supports their ability to do the following:
At a micro level:
- Provide an update of their tasks and expose both internal and external challenges that are currently preventing them from completing their tasks.
- Review the Voyage Backlog and add or remove tasks.
At a macro level:
- Share and log external challenges and threats that may prevent the team from reaching the future destination using the Preferred Route.
- Update the Preferred Route with new information and plan any necessary communications to stakeholders.
Being alert to changes, raising them quickly and responding accordingly is key to a successful journey.
3. Motivate
Like any long journey or program, people’s motivation tends to wane especially if there is limited, visible progress.
Voyagers should have already established a strong foundation of trust and psychological safety. This occurred during Chart when the Voyage Blueprint was designed. But, a culture of trust needs to be continually strengthened during the journey and at times, re-established. It’s imperative to continue to ‘speak human to human’, otherwise, there will be team conflict and disruptions that may lead to a failed journey.
Here are some practical ways to keep motivation high during the journey:
Emphasise a Culture of Feedback
- Start with self. We need to recognise our own defensive patterns and observe situations that challenge our emotions.
- Model our own behaviour by being curious about any opposition faced during the journey, inviting people in rather than avoiding what they have to say. It is useful to view opposition as an opportunity to learn and to make the process more robust.
- Enable the team to call out the elephant in the room. Do this during meetings and get-togethers. It’s important to address some of the emotional challenges Voyagers are facing or will face.
- Actively surface mis-alignment and conflicting perspectives, rather than push forward with a status update without digging in deeper. This is uncomfortable, but glossing over issues with general status updates will close down feedback.
- Help the team to separate the issue from the team member or the group that has raised the issue. Voyagers will also need to be open to learning from resistors. They will need to recognise that they may often become a ‘lightning rod’ for other people’s frustrations, fears and uncertainties.
- Coach the team to ‘read the room’ to get some perspective on how people are responding to the journey’s progress.
- Design and run surveys to ask for feedback on the team’s health.
- Remember that feedback for poor performance or attitude should be delivered immediately, kindly and privately rather than delayed until there is a formal meeting or performance review.
Promote the Destination
- Design interactive energising sessions for the team to recall and re-state the Destination Statement. Teams are motivated by purpose and future possibilities.
- Keep the Destination Statement top of the team’s mind by displaying it on digital backgrounds and/or in physical spaces. Visual cues will help the team commit the story to their memory.
- Hold regular ‘Town Halls’ for the immediate team to engage and discuss the progress made on the journey towards the Destination with a wider audience. Teams need to be shown that their work is meaningful and is contributing to a successful journey.
- Create a video story of the future and promote within the team as well as to key stakeholders. Projecting into the future enables teams to successfully engage in the work.
Voyaging is the opportunity for Product Managers to grapple and solve real challenges to create a meaningful future. As the Voyage advances, the team will deeply Monitor its progress over the course of this journey to ensure that benefits for both the organisation, the market and customers ensues.
Monitor
Monitoring helps us manage the uncertainty of the journey, enables us to refer to our Voyage Plan and course-correct along the way while we head towards the final destination.
Establish the information we need to monitor, including any early warning signs for each course. Log the data and keep our stakeholders informed of our progress.
Monitoring helps us decide which route to persevere with and which to abandon when we experience difficulties or key decision points along the way to our final destination.
Monitor is the fifth step in the Product Navigation Framework. Our organisation will need to be kept informed of the Voyage, and Monitor focuses our attention on looking forward to ensuring we are pursuing the safest route to our future destination.
What is it?
Monitoring helps us manage the uncertainty of the journey, by referring to our Voyage Plan to course-correct along the way to our destination.
During Monitor, we establish the information we need to track the journey, including any early warning signs. It helps us to decide which route to persevere with, and which to abandon when we reach key decision points along the way to our final destination.
Goal
The goal of Monitor is to track key measures, understand blockers, and decide how to navigate challenges that are presented during the journey. Specifically, tracking leading indicators on this journey provides for a faster feedback loop that can accelerate learning or provide better course correction opportunities.
How do we Monitor?
- Collect – the key measures for every target milestone
- Track – the measures that help us gauge if we will reach each milestone
- Decide – if we need to continue monitoring OR if we should return to CHART to look at the second route if we’re off course (or another route).
1. Collect
Voyagers have to establish data collection early on in the Voyage, not as an afterthought. Voyagers should define both leading and lagging indicators at the beginning of Voyage. As the Voyage progresses, the team should collect and assess the data to help evaluate the progress of the whole journey.
Leading indicators offer early warning signals and enable the team to course-correct as they travel from milestone to milestone. It is essential to identify ways to assess continued route viability by measuring elements linked to the uncertainties identified in earlier stages.
Lagging indicators offer the team and organisation information about what has happened. They help inform the team’s preparation to voyage to the next milestone and are used to demonstrate and communicate progress to stakeholders.
As a baseline, the team should obtain the following categories of data and information:
Leading Indicators | Lagging Indicators | |
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Uncertainties and Risks: |
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Financial Measures: |
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Process Measures: |
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Project Measures: |
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Portfolio Measures: |
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Team Measures: |
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Technology Measures: |
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The actual data and information the team collects, however, very much depends on the milestone Voyagers intend to deliver.
2. Track
Design a Voyage Scorecard and use leading indicators to track if we are voyaging as expected. The Scorecard should convey a story of the Voyage at a point in time in order to aid decision making. The Voyage Scorecard should be reviewed by the team as a part of a retrospective and updated by a Project / Program Manager ideally after every sprint.
Depending on your journey, it may be necessary to update the Scorecard more or less frequently, but it’s essential to keep good records on such a long and potentially difficult journey. This update should also be communicated to immediate members of the team and to stakeholders of the journey.
Here is an example of a Voyage Scorecard for a milestone:
Timeframe: | August 2022 to December 2024 | ||
Reporting Date: | July 2024 | Sprint: | 23 |
Status: | DELAYED BUT BUDGETARY SPEND IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS | ||
Leading Indicator | Progress | Next Steps | |
Uncertainties and Risks: |
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Market Measures: |
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Financial Measures: |
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Process Measures: |
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Project Measures: |
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Portfolio Measures: |
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Team Measures: |
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Technology Measures: |
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3. Decide
Every journey will have times when it is a little off track. It is important to identify whether the team should be worried about delays and if they will have any material impact on the ability to reach the destination.
A decision must be made to stay the course and continue monitoring, or to re-assess the viability of the course altogether. This decision cannot be made alone, and the team and potentially relevant stakeholders may need to come together to decide.
The Voyage Plan & Blueprint are essential to steer this decision. If you are off course, consider:
- The impact of being off course in this milestone on the overall journey – how essential is this milestone overall?
- The likelihood that the next steps will be able to course-correct – how far off course are we and are we confident we can change this?
If the impact of this milestone is large and the likelihood is low, it may be an indicator that the team needs to make the decision to go back to Chart and look at alternate routes. If the impact is small and/or the likelihood of getting back on track is high, the team may decide to continue monitoring longer to check that the course can be brought back on track.
In our example, we have assessed:
- The impact of this milestone is LARGE – if we cannot secure a partner, or spend too much of our budget, it will mean we cannot achieve our preferred route.
- The likelihood of our next steps in course-correcting is HIGH – the team are confident we will be able to bring this back on track in the next few sprints
- Decision: We will continue to monitor and expect to be back on course in 2-3 sprints.
There will be many wins and setbacks during the course of the Voyage. The core navigation processes of Chart, Voyage and Monitor will be used time and time again. Monitoring is key to deciding if we are on track.
At the heart of the Voyage is the team’s ability to maintain its passion and commitment to reaching its future destination. It will be worth the effort when we Arrive.
Arrive
Take a moment and celebrate the successful voyage with the team and organisation. We’ve changed our world and our customers’ lives.
Share the learnings and shepherd the successful journey to a team that can nurture its customers and lifecycle.
Then, take those learnings and return to Gaze once more to set a new destination to take us into our next uncertain future.
Arrive is the sixth and final step in the Product Navigation Framework. The Voyagers have arrived at last at our final destination. It’s time to celebrate! The hard work of Voyaging, the big and small bets placed, and the many micro-decisions made along the way, have finally paid off.
What is it?
Arrive is the point of recognition that celebrates a Horizon 3 challenge achieved. The organisation is ready to launch something meaningful that will change the world and our customers’ lives.
Take that well deserved moment and celebrate the successful voyage with the team and organisation. We’ve grown new skills and capabilities and learnt many lessons. It’s time to share the learnings and shepherd the solution to a team that can continue to nurture its customers and lifecycle. It’s also time for the organisation to consider its future again and make new decisions.
Goal
The goal of Arrive is to celebrate and integrate the new solution into Horizon 1’s lifecycle. But, there are also big decisions to be made in Arrive. The organisation has to decide if it should go on to place another Horizon 3 bet soon after its arrival, or focus its capital solely on driving a return on its new investment. There are many options to choose from.
How do we Arrive?
- Celebrate – the successful completion of the journey
- Integrate – the new solution into Horizon 1’s lifecycle
- Choose – the next step in the organisation’s future
1. Celebrate
We know we’ve arrived when we can demonstrate and show evidence that we’ve reached our final destination.
Our Destination:
We will offer a carbon & plastic net-zero shopping experience by 2030 in all our stores to reduce the impact of shopping on the planet. If we don’t significantly reduce carbon and plastic waste, the earth’s temperatures will rise and waste will continue to build up. If we do not offer this future, our customers will find alternative solutions, our revenues will diminish and our organisation may become obsolete.
We will re-use our waste to create renewable packaging that does not depend on natural gas and petroleum. This will create an additional revenue stream, re-use the waste we create and encourage suppliers to use packaging with lower environmental impact.
More specifically, this means that Voyagers have assessed the final destination’s measurables and can confidently confirm their Arrival to key stakeholders.
Destination Measurables:
At least 10% of the organisation’s waste is being collected for the purpose of manufacturing the new renewable plastics
At least 80% of the weight of the renewable plastics are composed from the collected waste
After which, it’s time to officially announce and launch the new solution to the marketplace.
- Make It Public
A planned public announcement and acknowledgement is the culmination of hard work. It is an opportunity to make the invisible visible and demonstrate the outcomes delivered. The organisation is exhibiting its ability to build innovative, valuable solutions for the market and to remain ahead of change. This engenders trust, builds a higher profile for the organisation, and – later on – grows future revenue streams.
Voyagers will need to enlist the help of the Marketing, Communications and/or Launch teams to prepare an Arrival Plan. Like any Plan, consider the organisation’s intentions, the target audience and their motivations for knowing or learning about the new solution, then craft a compelling story that will draw their attention.
This planning should not be left to the last minute, it takes time to craft a narrative that is fit for purpose. Ideally these teams will have been stakeholders in Voyage; if not, engage with them as early as possible to ensure adequate time to craft a good Arrival Plan.
- Applaud The Outcome
It is important to praise the results of the team who worked tirelessly in uncertain environments across a long timescale. Each individual in the team should be acknowledged and rewarded for their contribution.
But, it is equally important to applaud the whole organisation. The organisation made a big bet and the decision to embark on a risky journey should also be celebrated.
While Voyagers experienced challenges first-hand, the whole of the organisation offered Voyagers the time to explore, as well as the organisational capital required to initiate and continue the journey to the final destination.
Celebrating risk taking is imperative, especially if the organisation wants to remain in a strong position to face the next wave of change. This helps to ensure that others in the organisation with new ideas are more willing to embark on future voyages.
- Share The Learnings
Voyagers, as well as other teams in the organisation, will have many learnings to share. Celebrating well means reflecting on the journey, and understanding the challenges undertaken and the mistakes made. Don’t gloss over the failures and mistakes by only focusing on the successes. Often the best lessons can be learnt from what didn’t work. Encourage open sharing and documentation of these to assist with future Voyages.
Some ways to collect and share learnings are:
- Conduct one-on-one interviews across the organisation to derive the learnings from occasional participants, those who supported the journey, and those who were bystanders. Socialise insights from these interviews as summaries or presentations across the organisation.
- For Voyagers, conduct day-long retrospective sessions, going beyond the typical sprint retrospective questions to review the Voyage Scorecard and evaluate the path taken to reach each milestone. Socialise insights from these sessions as reports or presentations across the organisation.
- Have Voyagers share internal blogs, vlogs or other content across the company. Get several perspectives, asking Voyagers who had differing roles to share their stories. Individuals sharing their stories helps to humanise the Voyage, and show how individuals contribute to the bigger journey.
Plenty of data, some of which may be conflicting, will be produced as a result of this sharing. This reveals the nature of innovation, not a straight line, but a heroic act. Sharing of learnings begins the case for the organisation’s next journey.
2. Integrate
To derive a return on this significant investment, the solution must be integrated into Horizon 1, where teams will iterate and improve on it. Horizon 1 Product Management teams will have the processes, the capability and the focus to continually deliver on the vision articulated in the final destination, as well as identify and derive new commercial opportunities from the solution.
To transition a Horizon 3 solution to Horizon 1 requires these prerequisites for success:
- A product leader who will re-establish the vision articulated in the final destination and produce a more suitable vision for Horizon 1.
- A product strategy and a supporting roadmap that outlines the path to achieving the Horizon 1 vision.
- A review and potentially re-engineering of product processes to assimilate the new solution.
- Horizon 1 teams with the right skills and capabilities who understand and work with the new solution.
- A knowledge transfer process from Horizon 3 Voyagers to Horizon 1 team members.
Knowledge transfer should include more than documentation, though the artefacts created along the way will be useful. Continued access to previous Voyagers, partners, research and insights from the journey undertaken will be essential, and it may be possible that some Voyagers may want to stay on and join the Horizon 1 team, but your integration should not rely on this.
3. Choose
By now, Voyagers and the organisation may well have decision fatigue, but there is one more decision to be made before the journey ends. The organisation has to make a choice about where next to invest its time and resources.
There are a myriad of possible options to choose, but making this decision after a long journey is dependent on the organisation’s long term objectives, its risk appetite, and the state of the market. Some options may be to focus on:
- Horizon 1 only – Focus attention and investment on growing the new solution for the foreseeable future.
- Horizon 1 & 2 – Split resources and investment on identifying a number of smaller bets while simultaneously growing the new solution.
- Horizon 1 & 3 – Split resources and investment to focus on growing the new solution and returning to Gaze to identify and invest in the next big bet.
Without making a definite choice, the organisation may either over commit or miss the opportunities available to it now that the new solution is in place.
- Make Use Of Decision Tools
It is impossible to predict the future, but decision making tools can aid the process and help to overcome some of the organisation’s inherent biases.
Use a Decision Tree to map out the options, and then the risks and consequences of each option. Detailing the various options in a tree format enables the organisation to ‘zoom out’ and to grasp the impacts of decisions before they are made. Overlay the Decision Tree with expected returns and the costs associated with each option to gain a better investment perspective. This will help the organisation compare the consequences of different courses of action and make a choice.
Only once a choice has been made for the future can the organisation and the Voyagers call this journey to an end.
A Final Word For Product Management
There is much to digest in the Product Navigation Framework. It is also somewhat uncomfortable as it is unlike our current approaches which hero speed, iteration, small bets and certainty. This is because when innovating for Horizon 3 we are operating on much larger time and investment scales with much less certainty.
The Product Navigation Framework helps us make a plan for uncertainty and gives us a process to change course without sacrificing direction. This is essential when making large, long term bets to ensure we don’t either stick to a plan that doesn’t work, or sacrifice our journey at the smallest sign of trouble.
But, it’s important to remember that we are not sacrificing Horizon 1 thinking either. This Framework should be used separately and alongside Horizon 1 approaches as we embark on building future, Horizon 3 products today.
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