среда, 9 ноября 2016 г.

Recruitment, Training, and human resources



The work of the Human Resources department


 

We all know that recruitment and selection is one of the tasks that the HR department fulfills. The other tasks will be discussed below:
  • Recruitment and selection: Involves selecting and attracting the best workers.
  • Wages and salaries: Must be enough to motivate or attract workers.
  • Industrial relations: There must be effective communication between departments.
  • Training programmes: Must meet the training needs of employees and accomplish business objectives.
  • Health and safety: Must do things according to the law.
  • Redundancy and dismissal: Must obey all laws when firing workers.
Recruitment and selection
Workers are needed when a business starts upexpands or an existing employee leaves. Businesses use the recruitment process to successfully employ the right people. This process is usually undertaken by the HR department, but in small business, HR departments do not exist since the businesses employ too little workers for it to be of much use. Here is a diagram summarising the recruitment process:
  1. Vacancy arises.
  2. job analysis is done, which identifies the responsibilities and tasks of the job.
  3. job description lists that responsibilities and tasks to the candidates who apply for the position.
  4. job specification outlines the required qualificationsexpertise and experience a candidate needs so that they can be accepted.
  5. The job is advertised in the appropriate media. (e.g. newspapers)
  6. Candidates fill out application forms, which are short-listed so that only the best candidates remain.
  7. Interviews are held with remaining candidates, and the ones suitable for the job are selected.
  8. Vacancy filled.
The recruitment process
Job analysis and description:
When a new employee is needed, a job analysis needs to be taken to identify the tasks and responsibilities of the position. This should be easy for a job that needs replacement, but not so much for a job that has just been created.
Once all the details of the job has been gathered, a job description needs to be drawn up. This job description has several functions:
  • Given to candidates so they will know what the job will involve.
  • Allows a job specification to be drawn up which will state the requirements for the job.
  • Shows whether an employee carries out the job effectively or not. It helps solve disputes between employees and employers about wages, working hours, etc.
The job description for any business will usually contain:
  • The title of the job.
  • The department one will work in.
  • Who will be in charge of the job-holder.
  • Who the job-holder will be in charge for
  • The purpose of the job (job summary).
  • The main duties of the job.
Job description sometimes contain information about:
  • The conditions of employment – working hours, wages, pension schemes.
  • Training that will be offered.
  • Opportunities of promotion.
Job specification
After the job description has been drawn up, the qualifications for the job can be identified. They usually include:
  • The level of educational qualifications.
  • The amount and type of experience.
  • Special skillstalents or knowledge.
  • Personal characteristics. (e.g. type of personality)

Advertising the vacancy

The next stage is on how to get people to know that you have a job to be filled.
Internal recruitment
The vacancy can be filled by an employee already in the business. It might be suitable for employees seeking promotion.
Pros of internal recruitment:
  • Saves time and money.
  • The candidates' reliabilityability and potential are already known.
  • The candidates know the expectations and rules of the company.
  • Motivates other employees to work harder to get promoted too.
Cons of internal recruitment
  • No new ideas or experience come into the business. 
  • May create jealousy and rivalry between existing employees.
External recruitment
Most vacancies are filled with external recruitment, which always involves advertising the vacancy. Here are some suitable media of advertising:
  • Local newspaper: Usually for office and manual workers. These people are plenty since the job does not require too much skill.
  • National newspaper: Used to find workers for senior positions that requires a lot of skills. It can be read by people anywhere in the country or overseas.
  • Specialist magazines: Used for particular technical specialists such as physicists. Can be used to hire people in the home country or abroad.
  • Recruitment agencies: Keeps details of qualified people, and will send the suitable applicants to interviews when a business asks for a worker. Many businesses prefer to use recruitment agencies to find them workers because it is easier. However, it is expensive since their fee is based on a percentage of the workers pay.
  • Government job centres: Place where businesses can advertise their vacancies. These vacancies are usually for unskilled or semi-skilledworkers.
Possible effects of government legislation on the recruitment process
Many governments pass laws to create equal employee
opportunities. They state that all employees should be treated equally in the work place and receive the same salary for doing the same job. People of any sex and people with disabilities are treated equally. Therefore, businesses need to be careful when advertising and treating their employees because they could be prosecuted and fined.

Job advertisement
This is what a business needs to decide when drawing up an advertisement:
  • What should be included.
    • Job description
    • Job specification
  • Where the ad will be placed.
    • (depends on job)
  • Advertising budget.
    • (depends on job)
Applications forms and CVs/résumés
When a person applies for a job, he will have to fill out an application form, or write an application letter with a CV enclosed. CVs are descriptions about one's qualifications and skills in a set format
Businesses will use application forms and CVs to see whether an applicant match the job specifications or not. The closest matching applicants are invited to interviews in the selection stage. A short-list is drawn up. 
These are what CVs should contain:
  • Name
  • Address
  • Telephone Number
  • Date of Birth
  • Nationality
  • Education and qualifications
  • Work experience
  • Positions of responsibility
  • Interests
  • Names and addresses of references.
The letter of application should contain briefly:
  • Why the applicant wants the job.
  • Why the applicant feels he/she would be suitable.
Applicant forms ask for the same information as the application letter and CV, but may ask for other types of information.
Interviews
Applicants who are invited to interviews will have provided the names and addresses of their references. These people can give their opinions on the reliability, honesty and skills of the applicants and they will be likely to tell the truth because the applicants will not know what they have said. 
Interviews are the most popular form of selection. However, interviews are not always the most reliable process of selection. They aim to find out these things:
  • The applicant's ability to do the job.
  • Personal qualities that are advantageous and disadvantageous.
  • General characteristics – whether they can "fit in"?
These are the likely questions in an interview:
  • Why have you applied for the job?
  • What do you know about this company?
  • What qualities do you have to offer the company?
  • What ambitions do you have?
  • What are your hobbies and interests?
  • Do you have any questions to ask us?
Interviews can be one-to-one, two-to-one, or a panel of people to interview people which is used to select people for important jobs. Some businesses include tests in their selection.
  • Skill tests: To test the skills of the candidates.
  • Aptitude tests: To test how easily candidates can be trained/learn new things.
  • Personality tests: To test for people who have specific personal qualities which will fit into jobs – e.g. that has a lot of stress; requires you to work with a team.
  • Group situation tests: To test how well applicants work with other people.
Rejecting unsuccessful applicants
When applicants fail to get the job, they should be informed and thanked for applying.
Training
Training is often needed to do achieve the needs listed below. These needs can be long-term or short-term.
  • Introduce a new process or equipment.
  • Improve efficiency.
  • Decrease supervision needed.
  • Improve the opportunity for internal promotion.
  • Decrease the chance of accidents
Employees should know the benefits of training for them to take it seriously. Here are some objectives of training:
  • Increase skills.
  • Increase knowledge.
  • Change attitude, raise awareness.
There are three main types of training:
  • Induction training:
    • Introducing a new
      employee to their business/management/co-workers/facilities.
    • Lasts one to several
      days.
  • On-the-job training:
    • Employees are trained by watching
      professionals do a job.
    • Only suitable for unskilled and semi-skilled jobs.
    • Cuts travel
      costs.
    • The trainee may do
      some
      work.
    • The trainer's productiveness is decreased because he has to show things to the trainee.
    • The trainer's bad
      habits can be passed to the trainee.
  • Off-the-job training: 
    • Workers go to another place for training (e.g. school).
    • Methods are varied and usually more complex.
    • Usually classroom training.
    • Employees still work during the day.
    • Employees can learn many skills.
Workforce planning
A business will need to forecast the type and number of employees needed in the future. This depends on the firm's growth and objectives. The forecast can be done by:
  • Finding out the skills of all current employees.
  • Counting out people who are leaving soon (e.g. retirement).
  • Talk to staff about who would want to retrain for new jobs.
  • Provide a recruitment plan. (how many new staff are needed, and how they should be recruited, internal or external)
Dismissal and Redundancy
There are some situations when businesses need to reduce the number of employees they have. This can be done in two ways:
  • Dismissal:
    • A worker is fired for unsatisfactory work or behaviour.
    • Fault of the employee.
  • Redundancy:
    • Employees are no longer needed.
    • Not the fault of the employee.
    • Some reasons are:
      • A business is closing down a factory.
      • A business wants to cut costs by reducing the number of employees.
      • A business has merged/taken over another and there are too many staff in certain departments.
      • New machinery replaces workers.
    • Employees are given some money to compensate for their lost job.
      • The money is often negotiated with trade unions.
      • Some government have laws that makes businesses pay for their workers this way.
    • If only some employees are to be made redundant, trade unions will agree with the fairest way to see who goes. These terms are negotiated with the HR department.
      • Sometimes there will be voluntary redundancyby members.
        • Older workers.
        • There may be some who wants to leave because they have other ideas.

Pareto Chart


A Pareto Chart is a graph with both bars and a line, where the individual values of a data series are presented in vertical bars (generally in descending order), and the cumulative values are presented as an increasing, concave line. Often, the vertical axis on the left of the chart is used to depict the number of occurrences (or costs, or other metric), while the vertical axis on the right is used to show the percentage of total occurrences.

Pareto charts are often used in quality control, analyzing reasons for why defects are happening or why a process is not working properly. As a matter of fact, they are considered one of the key seven tools of Total Quality Control (TQC). A Pareto chart shows a quick highlight on what the key reasons are for a problem or issues (e.g. addressing the top two issues will help us solve xx% of the total defects). 
The chart is named after Vilfredo Pareto (1848 to 1923), an Italian engineer and economist who taught at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland. He was best known for his “Pareto distribution,” stating that the wealth distribution in a society generally follows a power law curve.  

вторник, 8 ноября 2016 г.

Инкотермс: удобная таблица


Составление и заключение договоров поставки товаров между государствами требует от сторон знания специальной терминологии. Во избежание случаев неверного толкования понятий, используемых в сфере ВЭД и, как следствие, возникновения споров, необходимо руководствоваться правилами, закрепленными в Инкотермс.

Понятие Инкотермс

Инкотермс — документ, имеющий статус международного нормативного акта, изданный в форме словаря, содержащего перечень терминов, наиболее широко используемых при заключении договоров внешних поставок, и исчерпывающих определений к ним. Его основная задача — стандартизация и оптимизация условий международных договоров поставки для приведения их в соответствие законам всех стран-участников контракта.
В настоящее время действуют правила толкования торговых терминов Инкотермс в редакции 2010 года (таблица актуальна на 2015г. и 2016г.). Основное отличие от предыдущей версии 2000 года в том, что теперь их действие распространяется не только на международный, но и на внутренний товарооборот. Кроме того, условия инкотермс 2010 включают в себя две новых аббревиатуры: DAP (поставка в пункте) и DAT (поставка в терминале), использование которых позволяет сторонам более точно определять момент перехода риска от продавца к покупателю.

Область применения Инкотермс

Международные торговые термины Инкотермс призваны регулировать следующие сферы торговых взаимоотношений:
  • Определение даты поставки товара.
  • Распределение между сторонами договора транспортных издержек и иных расходов, связанных с перевозкой груза;
  • Урегулирование условий перехода ответственности за риски, связанные с гибелью, утратой или порчей товара в процессе транспортировки.
  • Содержание Инкотермс

    Все термины, входящие в состав Инкотермс, обозначены в виде трехбуквенной аббревиатуры, первая буква в которой указывает на момент и место перехода обязательств от поставщика к получателю:
  • E — обязательства переходят к покупателю непосредственно в момент отправки и, соответственно, в месте отправки товара;
  • F — точкой перехода обязательств является терминал отправления перевозки при условии, что основная часть транспортировки остается неоплаченной;
  • С — оплата основной перевозки производится в полном объеме, обязательства переходят в момент поступления груза к терминалу прибытия;
  • D — «полноценная доставка», когда переход обязательств осуществляется в момент принятия товара покупателем.
  • Действующие условия Инкотермс 2010 содержат 11 терминов, из которых 7 применимы к грузоперевозкам, осуществляемым любым видом транспорта, и 4 — исключительно к способам поставки товара посредством наводных перевозок (морской транспорт и транспорт территориальных вод).
    Универсальные термины:
  • EXW — «самовывоз» или категория перевозок, где точкой франко, то есть местом перехода ответственности от поставщика к получателю, является непосредственно склад продавца.
  • FCA — режим, обязывающий продавца доставить товар к месту приема его перевозчиком в соответствии с условиями договора (оплата экспортных пошлин —обязанность поставщика).
  • CPT — оплата основной части перевозки, то есть до точки прибытия, лежит на продавце, который, в соответствии с договором, осуществляет доставку товара перевозчику (расходы на страховые и таможенные сборы, взносы за импорт и растаможку на покупателе).
  • CIP — режим доставки, практически аналогичный категории CPT, разница заключается в возложении обязанности по уплате страховки на продавца;
  • DAT — распределение расходов между продавцом и покупателем: первый оплачивает поставку до терминала прибытия и экспортные платежи и страховые сборы, второй – таможенную очистку и оставшуюся часть транспортировки до места назначения.
  • DAP — поставка товара к месту назначения с возложением обязанностей по уплате импортных пошлин и налогов в адрес государства-получателя на покупателя.
  • DDP —доставка товара к месту назначения с возложением расходов на продавца в полном объеме.
  • Термины, применяемые к грузоперевозкам, осуществляемым морским и иным наводным транспортом:
  • FOB — отгрузка товара на судно, принадлежащее покупателю или оплаченное им, при этом оплата части доставки до терминала входит в обязанность продавца;
  • FAS — доставка товара к судну покупателя без отгрузки. Бремя оплаты отгрузки и доставки лежит на получателе.
  • CFR — перевозка груза до порта, указанного в договоре. Все расходы по доставке, оплате страховки, разгрузки и перевалочных работ при этом покупатель несет самостоятельно.
  • CIF — режим поставки, аналогичный категории CFR, однако оплата страховых взносов возлагается на продавца.

  • понедельник, 7 ноября 2016 г.

    20 Quick Tips for Better Time Management



     
    Having excellent time management skills will help prepare you for success.

    Organization, focus and productivity are key to successfully managing your time. Creating daily plans, limiting time spent for each tasks, using an organizer, blocking out distractions -- there are a number you can maximize your time management skills. 
    In this video, Toon Explainers go over 20 helpful tips to help you better your time. Click play to check it out.

    суббота, 5 ноября 2016 г.

    Motivation at work


    Motivation


    People work for a number of reasons. Most people work because they need to earn money to survive, while others work voluntarily for other reasons. Motivation is the reason why people work, and it drives them to work better. Therefore, managers try to find out what motivate workers and use them to encourage workers to work more efficiency. This results in higher productivity, increased output, and ultimately higher profits.
    • Nowadays, machinery is more common in businesses which results in increased productivity as well. However, the amount that a well motivated workforce can produce must still be recognised, since employees are a firms greatest assets!



    Motivation theories


    People work very hard when they are working for themselves. When they work for other people, less so. Managers have been looking into what makes employees contribute their fullest to the company and these studies have resulted four main theories of motivation.

    F.W.Taylor


    Theory:
    • Money is the main motivator.
    • If employees are paid more, they work more.
    • Work is broken down into simple processes, and more money is paid which will increase the level of productivity an employee will achieve.
    • The extra pay is less than the increased productivity.
    Cons:
    • Workers are seen rather like machines, and this theory does not take into account non-financial motivators.
    • Even if you pay more, there is no guarantee of a productivity rise.
    • It is difficult to measure an employees output.
    Maslow

    Maslow created what is know as the hierarchy of needs

    In this diagram, there are 5 different types of motivation:
    • Physiological needs: basic requirements for survival.
    • Security needs: the need to by physically safe.
    • Social needs: the need to belong and have good relationships with co-workers.
    • Esteem needs: the need for self-respect and to be respected by others.
    • Self-actualisation needs: the need to reach your full potential and be promoted.
    Businesses realise that the more levels of motivation are available to workers, the harder they will work. Maslow also suggest that each level of motivation mustbe achieved before going to the next level. Once one level of motivation is met, more of that will no longer motivate the employee. 

    Cons:
    • Some levels are not present in some jobs.
    • Some rewards belong to more than one level on others.
    • Managers need to identify the levels of motivation in any job before using it to motivate employees.
    Herzberg

    To Herzberg, humans have hygiene factors, or basic animal needs of humans. We also have motivational factors/motivators, that are required for the human to grow psychologically. 

    Hygiene factors:
    • Status.
    • Security.
    • Working conditions.
    • Company policies and administration.
    • Relationship with supervisor.
    • Relationship with subordinates.
    • Salary.
    Motivational factors:
    • Achievement.
    • Recognition.
    • Personal growth/development.
    • Advancement/promotion.
    • Job satisfaction.
    To Herzberg, if the hygiene factors are not satisfied, they will act as demotivators. They are not motivators, since the motivating effect quickly wears off after they have been satisfied. True motivators are are Herzberg's motivational factors.

    McGregor

    McGregor splits his theory into what managers believe. One type believes in theory X, while the other type believes in theory Y. Here is the table:

    Here are some differences in how a X manager will work and how an Y managerwill work:
    • X managers believe that people are naturally lazy, and has to be pushed with external factors to work harder. (e.g. higher pay).
    • Y managers believe that people want to do a good days work but need a good environment to do the work. A better environment is an internal factor.
    • X managers will try to provide incentives and supervision for employees to work hard.
    • Y managers will try to provide a favourable environment so that employees can enjoy their work.
    Theory's like Taylor's theory are X theories, while others like McGregor's theory are Y theories. People may say that money is the main motivator, but studies have shown that many people leave jobs because other motivational factors are not available to them.

    Why do people work?


    Here is a summary of why people work:

    • Money: to satisfy needs and wants.
    • Security: knowing that you are physically safe and have job security.
    • Social needs: to belong to a group, making friends at work.
    • Esteem needs (self importance): feeling important, feeling the job you do is important.
    • Job satisfaction: enjoyment from the feeling of having done a good job. 
    Motivating factors - financial motivators

    There are three ways to motivate a workforce:
    • financial motivators
    • non-financial motivators 
    • ways to increase job satisfaction
    Financial rewards

    Pay may be the basic reason why people work, but different kinds of pay can motivate people differently. Here are the most common methods of payment:

    Wages

    Wages are paid every week, in cash or straight into the bank account, so that the employee does not have to wait long for his/her money. People tend to pay wages to manual workers. Since wages are paid weekly, they must be calculated every week which takes time and money. Wages clerks are paid to do this task. Workers get extra pay for the overtime that they do. There are some ways that wages could be calculated:

    Time rateTime rate is payment according to how many hours an employee has worked. It is used in businesses where it is difficult to measure the output of a worker.
    • + Easy to calculate the wage of the employee. A time-sheet must be filled out by the Accounts department to calculate the wage.
    •  - Both good and bad workers get paid the same wages. Therefore, more supervisors are needed to maintain good productivity. a clocking-in system is needed to know how many hours an employee has done.
    Here is an example of a wage slip and time-sheet:



    They show:
    • Basic pay + Overtime = Gross Pay 
    • Gross pay - Deductions = Net Pay
    Deductions include:
    • Taxes
    • Pension
    • Union fees
    • National insurance: entitles the payee to short-term unemployment benefitssickness benefits and state pension.
    Piece ratePiece rates are paid depending on how many units they have produced. There is usually a base pay (minimum wage) and the piece rate is calculated as a bonus on how many units were created. Piece rates are found in businesses where it is possible to measure a workers productivity.
    • + Encourages workers to work faster and produce more goods.
    •  - Workers will often neglect quality, and businesses will need a quality control system which is expensive.
    •  - Workers who focus on quality will earn lessTension is caused when some workers earn more than others.
    •  -  If machinery breaks down, employees earn less. That is why there is a guaranteed minimum pay.
    Salaries

    Salaries are paid monthly, and normally straight into the bank account.  They are usually for white collar workers. A salary is counted as an amount per year that is divided into 12 monthly accounts. You do not usually receive overtime. Managers only need to pay their workers once a month, and since the amount is transferred by the bank, the manager loses much less time and money calculate salary.

    Salaries are usually a standard rate, but other rewards could be given to employees:

    • Commissionpercentage is paid, usually to sales staff, depending on the value of goods they have sold. Workers are encouraged to sell more. However, they could persuade customers to buy products they don'r really want, making the company look bad. Just like the piece rate, in a bad month where there are little sales, worker's pay will fall.
    • Profit sharingEmployees receive a percentage of the profitsmade. However, they will get nothing if the business doesn't make a profit. This is often used in the service sector, where it is hard to find an employees contribution to the company.
    • Bonuslump sum paid to employees who have done well. It is usually paid at the end of the year or before holidays. However, this could cause jealousy between workers. Giving bonuses to a team works better.
    • Performance related payEmployee pay is linked to the effectiveness of their work. It is often used in organisations where it is hard to measure productivity. It uses the system of appraisal: employees are observed and their colleagues are interviewed to determine their effectiveness. Afterwards, the immediate superior of the employee has a meeting with them to discuss their effectiveness. 
    • Share ownershipEmployees receive some shares from the company. They will either benefit from dividends or sell the shares when their price has risen. They will be more motivated because they feel like a part of the company.
    Motivating factors - non-financial motivators

    There are other factors that motivate people in a business, and they are often called perks or fringe benefits. They may be having free accommodation, free car, etc... However, when you look at it, it is just money in different forms. Here is a list of these motivators:
    • Children's education.
    • Discounts on company products.
    • Free Healthcare.
    • Company vehicle.
    • Free accommodation.
    • Share options.
    • Expense accounts.
    • Pension.
    • Free holidays.
    Job satisfaction: 

    Employees will become more motivated by enjoying the job they do. Job satisfaction can come in different ways. However, there are some factors that demotivate employees if they are not satisfied, and must be satisfied before the motivators can take effect. Here are some things that make workers' jobs satisfying:
    • Pay.
    • Promotion.
    • working conditions.
    • Fringe benefits.
    • Management
    • Working hours.
    • The nature of the work itself.
    • Colleagues, etc...
    Herzberg and Maslow stresses that things such as responsibility recognition is also crucial to provide job satisfaction. Letting workers contribute to the job would also help, making jobs less boring and more creative. Here are some policies to increase job satisfaction:

    Job rotation:

    Workers in a production line can now change jobs with each other and making their jobs not so boring. It helps train the employee in different aspects of their jobs so that they can cover for other employees if they do not show up.

    Job enlargement: 

    Adding tasks of a similar level to a worker's job. Job enlargement simply gives more variety to employees' work which makes it more enjoyable.

    Job enrichment:

    Adding tasks of a higher level to a worker's job. Workers may need training, but they will be taking a step closer to their potential. Workers become more committed to their job which gives them more satisfaction.

    Autonomous work groups or teamworking:

    This is when group of workers are given total responsibility to organise themselves and perform a task. This makes the employees feel more important, as well as giving them a sense of belonging when they are part of a team. If they organise themselves differently every time, the team could get job enlargementand job enrichment too!

    Leadership

    Studies have shown that leadership has a great impact on worker's motivation. Good managers have leadership skills that inspire their workers to work better, as well as directing them with a common goal. Managers use many styles of leadership, and they can be summarised into 3 main styles:

    Autocratic leadership:
    • The manager controls all aspects of their subordinates' work.
    • They keep themselves separate from employees.
    • Employees are expected to obey every command and cannot contribute to decisions.
    • Communication is only top-down.
    Laissez-faire leadership:
    • Objectives are shown to employees, but the task is completely delegated to them.
    • Communication can be difficult since clear instructions are not given.
    • The manager has a limited role in this type of leadership.
    Democratic leadership:
    • The manager discusses tasks with his employees before making decisions.
    • Communication will be two-way, both top-down and bottom-up.
    Here is a diagram to summarise the leadership styles:


    The style of leadership used can vary depending on situations where they are the most effective.

    Formal and informal groups

    formal group is an official group that is formed to do a specific task in an organisation. An informal group is a group of people which are formed independently by themselves. They are not official, but the people in the group have a common interest or cause. Both of these groups are needed in business, and let's see why in this example. e.g. a school might create a football team (formal group) but the players need to bond together to play effectively (informal group).

    Formal groups in business

    Departments withing a business are good examples of formal groups. From time to time different groups might be set up to cope with different problems or do different tasks. Sometimes people from different departments could come together in a group to do a team project.

    Informal groups in business

    There are can be many informal groups in a business that can increase the motivation of workers because they have a true sense of belonging. e.g. There is a group of factory workers who are interested in basketball, and they form an informal group, as a result, when they get back into their formal group they are likely to co-ordinate better with each other.

    There are other scenarios where two departments merge to become one, making them one formal group. However, the people from these former departments still see themselves as separate from each other. These two groups of people will refuse to co-operate until they are also merged into an informal group. Therefore, informal groups should be handled carefully in business to yield the best results.

    Regular meetings, free holidays, sporting events and such things could be organised to create informal groups and use them in a more positive way to avoid them getting into the way of business activity.

    Scenarios


    Many projects include the use of scenarios, and it’s often quite difficult to depict them graphically. Here is a good way to summarize at a high level four different scenarios, based on two key uncertainties.

    Of course, the first task is to clearly define the uncertainties and driving forces. The framework is in some ways a good forcing mechanism to make sure that you really do pick uncertainties that are independent of each other. Shell is credited with being one of the first firms to use scenario planning extensively. So let’s use some oil industry examples: Some factors that affect the future are under a firm’s control: Do we want to focus on upstream or downstream operations or both? Do we want to be an industry leader by making acquisition, or a focused mid size player? Other factors can be forecasted with a certain degree of accuracy: What will GDP growth and oil consumption look like in China over the next ten years? But other factors are truly uncertain and present clear either-or outcomes: Will there be political turmoil or stability in key Middle East markets? Those are the critical driving forces and uncertainties to include in scenario planning.

    Once you have identified the two most relevant uncertainties and driving forces, fill out the key scenarios in each quadrant. As an additional chart, you may want to add an overview in table format, listing the four scenarios at left, and then a number of columns describing them in more detail: Opportunities, threats, strategic implications, etc.