Показаны сообщения с ярлыком budgeting. Показать все сообщения
Показаны сообщения с ярлыком budgeting. Показать все сообщения

суббота, 20 июля 2024 г.

Budgets vs. Forecasts vs. Projections

 


They’re not the same. And you probably need them all.

Here’s what you need to know:

🎯 The Budget:

- Aligns spending plans with revenue generation and strategic objectives.
- Sets the baseline for performance metrics.
- Serves as a control mechanism for effective cost management.

🎯 The Forecast:

- Acts as a navigational tool for short/mid-term financial performance.
- Integrates real-time market feedback for dynamic strategy adjustments.
- Identifies early warning signs and opportunities for proactive measures.

The Rolling forecast

- Extends the forecast to provide a 12-month forward-looking perspective.
- Is dynamic, recalibrating predictions as new data and trends emerge
- Facilitates a more agile response to market changes, competitor actions.

🎯 The Projections:

- Encourage long-range thinking and future scenario planning.
- Inform stakeholders of potential growth trajectories and risks.
- Drive policy and strategic decisions at the highest organizational levels.

https://tinyurl.com/mssh2vuc

пятница, 29 декабря 2023 г.

Marketers' Business and Budget Expectations for 2024

 Most marketers expect business will be better in 2024 compared with 2023, according to recent research from WARC.

The Voice of the Marketer 2024 report was based on WARC's annual survey of more than 1,400 marketers worldwide.

Some 61% of marketers surveyed expect that business will improve in 2024, up from 51% who said the same in last year's survey.


Some 41% of marketers believe that their marketing budgets will increase in 2024.

The top channels marketers expect to increase spend on next year are YouTube and TikTok. The top channel marketers expect to decrease spend on in 2024 is X/Twitter.


Some 39% of marketers say measurement is one of their top concerns for 2024.

More than half (54%) of marketers say brand metrics (e.g., awareness, consideration, purchase intent) are among the measures of effectiveness that have the greatest impact on their marketing strategy.


About the research: The Voice of the Marketer 2024 report was based on WARC's annual survey of more than 1,400 marketers worldwide.


https://www.marketingprofs.com/

четверг, 2 марта 2023 г.

What is Earned Value Management?

 

This is our short and simple guide to EVM. It's updated for 2023, and tells you all the basics in plain English.

Overview

Earned value management (EVM) is a project management technique. It helps you predict whether your initiatives will be finished on time and within budget.

 

Similarly, let’s say you’ve gotten half of the work done while spending half of your budget. That means you’re on budget regardless of how long it’s taken you.

 

For both cost and schedule, EVM compares something you’ve spent (time or money) against how much progress you’ve been able to make on your initiative. This initiative progress is the “value” that you’re “earning” in earned value management.

 

Although we track cost and schedule separately, that doesn’t mean they’re completely independent. It’s quite the opposite. The relationships between cost and schedule give EVM its true power, the ability to predict performance

EVM looks at cost and schedule separately. Let’s say you’re 6 months into a year-long initiative and you’ve gotten half of the work done. That means you’re right on schedule regardless of how much money you’ve spent.


The Lines

There are three lines on an EVM chart. They show the work goal, work completed, and money spent.

 

The work goal line is an S-curve that shows the pace of most initiatives. Not much is accomplished in the early phases of a project as you’re planning everything out, but then things really pick up steam in the middle. At the end you start to wrap things up and everything slows down again.

 

In official EVM terminology, this work goal line is called either Planned Value (PV) or Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS). In plain English, this line represents the goal for how much of your project you’ll be completing over time.


Next we’ll add the work completed line showing our initiative’s actual progress. You’re ahead of schedule if your percent complete is above the work goal. Higher is better.

 

The official term for measuring how much of your initiative is finished is either Earned Value (EV) or Budgeted Cost for Work Performed (BCWP). And, instead of tracking this progress by percent complete, EVM academics prefer to track how much money that completed work was worth. It’s a simple conversion.

 

If your initiative’s total budget is $100,000 and you’re 25% finished, you’ve done $25,000 worth of work. That’s the “earned value” in “earned value management.”

 

Traditional EVM visualizes how much work you’ve completed in terms of its monetary value. We think it’s more intuitive as percent complete. Either way, the lines look the same and the math is identical. It’s just different labels on the Y axis.



Finally, we’ll add the money spent line that shows how much this initiative has cost so far. Lower is better for this one. EVM purists call this line Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP).

 

Based on the relationships between these three lines, we can predict when the initiative will be finished, and how much money we’ll end up spending. That’s what we’ll explore next.



The Magic

Tracking an initiative’s progress is helpful, but earned value management’s real power is being able to predict outcomes.

Let’s look at the work goal and work completed lines again. The horizontal distance between our actual progress and the goal tells us how many days we’re ahead or behind schedule. You can then add or subtract that time from your initiative’s end date to get a good idea of when you’ll actually finish.


To predict the final cost of our initiative, we compare money spent to work completed. If you’ve been able to get 50% of the work done while only spending 40% of the money, your project is 10% under budget. Subtract that 10% from your total budget to see how much money you’re going to end up spending in total. The chart below shows this cost prediction in action.

49.8% over budget
Projected Cost: $225K
Projected Variance: 
$75K over budge

Notice how we’re not comparing anything to the work goal line here. That's because our cost predictions are entirely based on how much progress you've been able to make with the money you've spent. You could be months behind on your initiative, but if you've gotten 50% of the work done while spending 50% of the money, you're right on track as far as cost is concerned.

 

Ignoring the schedule when predicting how much you’ll end up spending on an initiative is the tricky part about EVM that sometimes throws people for a loop. It does make sense when you think about it, though.

 

Now let's put it all together. This is our finished EVM chart showing projected cost and schedule. You can adjust the sliders to see how each one affects the overall predictions.



Math

If you’re using performance management software to track your initiatives, there’s a good chance it can already predict cost and schedule using earned value management. You can do it on your own with a calculator, though.

To start, you’ll need 6 pieces of information about your initiative:

total budgetstart datedue datedays since startpercent (of work) completemoney spent to date

First, let’s calculate the Earned Value. As explained above, this is how much money the work you’ve done so far is worth.

earned value = percent complete × total budget

From there we can predict how much money you’ll spend on your initiative.

Projected Total Cost = money spent to date + total budget ‐ earned value

Next we’ll calculate Earned Time, which is the number of days worth of work you’ve completed so far. This is a little tricky because we have to calculate a point on the work goal curve, yet EVM doesn’t explicitly tell us how to draw that S-curve. Don’t worry, though. We’ve found that a curve like this works well.

wave scale = 7 / ((due date ‐ start date ‐ 1) / 2)wave value = ‐1 × ( ln(( 1 / percent complete) ‐1))work goal = start date + ((wave value + 7) / wave scale)earned time = work goal ‐ start date

With that out of the way, we can finally estimate when you’ll finish your initiative.

Projected End Date = due date ‐ earned time + days since start

https://cutt.ly/18mSgAZ

суббота, 28 января 2023 г.

A Framework for Budget Prioritization

 


One of the most important functions for managers and leaders in all organizations is the development and execution of budgets.  It’s important to develop a framework that allows the organization to set priorities, conserve funds, invest in high-priority objectives, and fight the growth of bureaucracies.

I developed and refined a budget approach that I found to be useful during normal budget cycles but especially during expansions or contractions.  It’s also been shown to be useful for both for-profit and not-for-profit organizations.

Here is a synopsis of the framework:

Budget Prioritization Framework

CategoryTypeWorking Definitions
1Revenue GrowthInvestments that will yield incremental revenue within an acceptable payback period.
2Expense SavingsInvestments that will yield cost savings within an acceptable payback period.
3StrategicExpenditures that support the adopted strategic plan.
4Unmet NeedsExpenditures to reduce bottlenecks, increase productivity, or improve customer satisfaction.

During budget planning, I think it’s best to put incremental decisions into priority categories 1 through 4. Category 1 is budget investments that add to revenue.  Category 2 is budget investments that reduce expenses.  Category 3 is budget expenditures that support the adopted strategic plan.  Category 4 is most other budget expenditures that improve overall operations.

Generally, Categories 1 and 2 should be funded before Categories 3 and 4.

My experience is that most budget managers will try to argue that their budget requests are 1 and 2.  I have found it best to put the organization’s CFO in charge of analytically determining the payback of a particular investment.  The payback period should be estimated based upon the incremental revenue generated or incremental savings generated.  Payback is the time it takes for that particular investment to start adding beyond its costs.  During budget reductions, this could be used to save positions.

During periods of severe budget concerns, I’ve seen payback metrics of as quick as six months.  For less cautious times, I’ve seen payback periods of up to two years.  In either case, the CFO should feel comfortable transparently sharing a data-driven computation justifying the payback period for each item being ranked.

Example 1:  A budget request comes in to hire a new salesperson.  The CFO reviews data that shows the ramp-up period for a new salesperson is averaging about 3 months and the sales cycle is 6 to 12 months.  Also, a fully performant salesperson generates about 6 times their cost in sales.  So, the CFO might conservatively estimate that at the 1-year point an average high-quality salesperson has generated 2 times their costs.  This would probably indicate a payback period of 9 months.

Example 2:  A budget request comes in to buy some software that will increase productivity and is proposed as a Category 2 investment.  The CFO needs to find a way that organizational costs actually go down.  If the software just enables tasks to be done faster or more completely, then it is category 4.  However, if the organization can be downsized as a result of bringing the software onboard, then it has a computable payback period for a Category 2 investment.  If the organization is growing rapidly and adopting the software allows the required tasks to be done by the same number of people while scaling, there could be an argument for Category 3, assuming organization scaling is part of the strategic plan.

Example 3:  Marketing may start by saying their entire budget is category 1, since the goal is to influence revenue.  Under this framework that is not acceptable and marketing expenditures are generally category 3 or 4.  However, the CFO should look at data-driven metrics by individual programs.  Attending a particular tradeshow last year may have resulted in 4 new customers with an average sales price that can be used to estimate the payback.  Alternatively, previous advertising campaigns were shown to yield a certain success rate that could be used to estimate an incremental revenue stream for estimating a payback.

Note that the CFO doesn’t have to generate these estimates from scratch.  It is OK for the organization units making the requests to provide the data, analytics, and models.  However, the CFO needs to review the computations and feel comfortable supporting the analysis as is or making adjustments.  The CFO should also be willing to have the estimates reviewed in the future to understand the success of the predictive models.

After items have been categorized and then ranked by payback, the business leadership can then review the budgets and proposed items and make selections.  This framework helps to focus the entire organization on the most important deliverables.

Incidentally, most of the expenditures that grow bureaucracy and organizational bloat occur in category 4. There are several posts in this blog that discuss the challenges of holding back growth in bureaucracy.  I have used this approach to help identify the most important investments and to reduce the amount of funding for items that increase bureaucracy.

Generally, everyone is working too hard, so additional personnel is required.  Just as likely key people want to add capabilities to the organization.  The easiest way to accomplish these goals is to request additional budget.  However, many times the best approach should be to stop doing things that are less effective or less important to fund these new activities.  Budget constraint helps to force this kind of innovation at the working unit levels.

by Steve Sliwa

https://cutt.ly/D9Udmoq

понедельник, 18 октября 2021 г.

How Senior Marketers Set Their Budgets

The most common approach that senior marketers take for setting their marketing budget is to create a yearly budget based on the previous year's expenses, according to recent research from The CMO Survey.

The report was based on data from a survey conducted in August 2021 among 2,791 senior marketers (94% of respondents are VP-level or above).

Some 41% of respondents say their marketing budget is set on a yearly basis based on the previous year’s expenses, and then adjusted during the year, if needed.

Other common approaches include building the budget from scratch every year based on new needs and objectives (28% of senior marketers say they take this approach), setting the budget as a percentage of projected revenue (21%), and revisiting and, if necessary, resetting the budget every month or quarter depending on what is needed to meet objectives (10%).

Senior marketers say they expect their marketing budgets to increase 13%, on average, in the next 12 months.


Senior marketers at B2B services firms expect their marketing budgets to increase 17%, on average, in the next 12 months, and senior marketers at B2B product firms expect their budgets to increase 11%.


About the researchThe report was based on data from a survey conducted in August 2021 among 2,791 senior marketers (94% of respondents are VP-level or above).

https://bit.ly/3ja3bEz


четверг, 30 сентября 2021 г.

SEO Expert Survey: Traffic, Budget, and Time Trends

 Search engine optimization (SEO) professionals say most of their clients had an increase in traffic to their websites in the last year, according to recent research from Search Engine Journal.

The report was based on data from a survey of 1,241 SEO professionals who worked directly with clients through an agency (875) or as a freelancer (366).

Some 41% of SEO pros say their clients' websites had a slight increase in traffic over the past 12 months, and 23% say the traffic increased a lot.


SEO professionals say the most common monthly SEO budget range for their clients is between $1,000-$5,000.


Some 39% of SEO professionals say their clients' budgets have increased a little over the past 12 months, and 24% say they have stayed the same.


SEO professionals say they spend most of their time on keyword research, optimizing on-page elements, and analytics.


About the researchThe report was based on data from a survey of 1,241 SEO professionals who worked directly with clients through an agency (875) or as a freelancer (366).

https://bit.ly/3AXMAee