Calculating the ROI of AI strategy

 

Christian Cobb

The hype of AI has led to AI “champions”, AI “task forces”, and AI “working groups” at any given company, but we are seeing organizations pivot from aimless AI tinkering to driving real impact. 

Sam Altman has said we will see a billion dollar company run by one person in our lifetimes. Whether or not we do (I think we will), this hammers home the idea that 1) AI’s flexibility means it can support any part of the business and 2) benchmarks for ROI are going to change radically as AI native systems emerge.

In this blog, we’ll break down how you can calculate the ROI of AI Strategy with a simple, actionable approach to get ahead of the crowd. And how you might maximize that return.

A simple frame for AI ROI to set you up for success

Before diving into the details, let’s establish two things:

1. The definition of ROI hasn’t changed. You need to get more out than you put in.
2. We need to develop business cases, as (after all) investment decisions are made by humans. 

That is not new. What has changed is the flexibility of the technology we are looking to apply. 

That is, AI can support almost any process, function, business unit, or customer interaction.  We’ve found in the past 2 years that answering the questions of where and how to start are deceptively tricky.

 

To simplify, think of AI ROI in three primary buckets:

1. Cost Efficiency – Reducing costs, increasing productivity, and getting more out of existing assets.
2. Revenue Optimization – Enhancing customer lifetime value through upsells, cross-sells, and retention improvements.
3. New Revenue Streams – Unlocking new products, services, or business models.

These also are not new. Any investment will probably fall into one of these categories. This is the best frame to figure out where to go deeper.

Single use case, or flooded with options? Here’s how to prioritize

Organizations making build or buy decisions typically fall into two camps: either they have one clear AI use case or they’re overwhelmed by too many possibilities. 

If you have a single use case: focus on defining one key KPI that aligns with your strategic objectives. If you’re working on AI-powered customer support, for instance, your KPI might be reduced response time or decreased customer churn. Simplifying your objective helps tell your story to stakeholders and streamline execution.

If you are comparing multiple use cases: use the three ROI buckets (cost efficiency, revenue optimization, new revenue streams) to categorize and compare your use cases, apples to apples. This helps prioritize investments with the highest impact. If you really have a lot of use cases, you can start with a simple 1-5 score in each bucket to prioritize and then go deeper.

Three waves of AI adoption: where are you playing?

AI-driven transformation doesn’t happen all at once. AI adoption will unfold in three waves, much like previous revolutionary technologies such as electricity, digital, or mobile:

• Wave 1: Time, Cost & Efficiency – applying AI to existing ways of working, focusing on time savings, cost reductions, and efficiency gains
• Wave 2: Quality & Better Output – leveraging AI for better quality and enhanced outcomes. It’s not just about being faster or cheaper; it’s about delivering superior results and higher standards. 
• Wave 3: New Systems & Transformation – creating entirely new systems and ways to deliver and capture value, and redefining markets. 

It’s important to understand that success in the first wave doesn’t guarantee success in the third. Businesses must plan their AI strategies with a vision for all three waves, ensuring that investments made today help build towards transformative opportunities tomorrow. We advocate for a portfolio approach: invest across all three waves, with a clear vision for the third wave in mind.

Efforts across all waves can begin now and happen simultaneously

Investment in a given wave will naturally have different impacts on returns.

The Three Waves Framework provides a strategic roadmap for growth, ensuring organizations capitalize on immediate opportunities while building toward transformative, long-term change. Its principles are universal, applying to technology, business models, and industry evolution

Where to find higher AI ROI - stacking AI investments

One of the biggest missed opportunities in AI strategy is failing to connect use cases for systemic returns. Let’s look at an example: let’s say a company implements three AI solutions:

• AI-powered customer support to reduce response time.
• AI trend prediction to anticipate market demands.
• AI product design to develop better products.

Individually, each offers a return. But when interconnected, they create contagious ROI—customer insights from support feed into trend prediction, which informs better product development, leading to improved sales. The more these AI solutions talk to each other, the more improving one will have compounding, contagious return.

There’s no wrong way to start. Wave 1 improvements reduce costs, but these are the easiest to find and will be adopted quickly. Wave 2 makes for better customer experiences, raising revenue with repeat or new customers from differentiating features. Wave 3 starts to emerge when you have a synergistic system of AI tools that complement each other, adding to the return each provides

What does a good AI use case look like?

To ensure AI delivers real ROI, assess potential projects through this lens:

1. Does it solve a user problem? If it’s solving a real pain point, adoption is more likely.
2. Does it solve an organizational problem? If it improves efficiency or revenue, it justifies the investment.
3. Does it align with your business model? AI should enhance your competitive edge, not distract from it.

Bonus points if your solution also:

• Solves a leadership problem – e.g., enables strategic decision-making that helps steer the ship.
• Includes a clear capability vision – e.g., lays the foundation for Wave 3 transformation
• Activates your data – AI transformation is a data transformation, and figuring out data ASAP is in your best interest. If you wouldn’t bet something dear to you that your data is ready – then it’s not ready.

Key takeaways of calculating ROI of AI

 strategy

• AI ROI falls into three buckets: cost efficiency, revenue optimization, and new revenue streams.
• Prioritize AI use cases strategically by aligning them with measurable KPIs and business objectives.
• AI transformation happens in waves, from cost savings (Wave 1), to better output (Wave 2) to systemic reinvention (Wave 3).
• Interconnected AI use cases multiply returns, creating a contagious effect of business growth.
• Successful AI investments require a solid data foundation—if your data isn’t ready, you won’t be able to execute on your AI strategy.

The bottom line: be strategic about AI ROI

AI is one of the most flexible tools we’ve ever had. But flexibility without focus leads to inefficiency. By categorizing use cases, aligning investments to the right wave of AI maturity, and stacking solutions for interconnected value, businesses can unlock real, measurable returns.

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Working ‘on’ or ‘in’ your organisational culture

 

Organisational Culture – Part 1

When we read about an association’s or charity’s culture in the media, all too often it is not a ‘good news’ story.

They don’t generally give out Walkley or Pulitzer awards to journalists for stories about innovative, caring, or ethical cultures. The news focus, therefore, skews towards corrupt, risky, toxic, or greedy cultures, and the directors and managers on whose watch that culture was created or allowed.

‘Organisational culture’ is an ephemeral concept. It means different things to different people, but also different things to any one of us depending on the circumstances.

We will have a different view about it as a ‘new hire’ than we have after years of service. We will also hold different perspectives within the same organisation depending on our role or ‘position’ within the organisation.

Working ‘on’ your culture

For some, culture is like the weather. It exists independently of anything we say or do, and we operate as best we can within it, whether it is ‘stormy’ or ‘fine’. Directors and managers however are held accountable for the effects of culture, especially if something goes wrong or someone gets hurt. It is therefore preferable that they work together to deliberately nurture their best possible organisational culture.

Both internal and external stakeholders know that what we pay attention to is what we care about. That is the true expression of our values – not what we say in glossy publications or online. Paying the right kind of attention to the right things is the key.

When reflecting on how to work on your ‘organisational culture’ (not just in it), it will be helpful first to ‘map the territory’ by coming to a shared view on your present culture compared with your desired one, and how this analysis relates to your organisation’s effectiveness. Understanding the elements, characteristics, and dimensions of your NFP culture is merely a first step in the process of exerting a positive influence.

Defining organisational culture

‘Organisational culture’ is commonly defined as the set of underlying values, beliefs, assumptions, and ways of acting and interacting which create the unique social and psychological environment of an organisation (Source: GothamCulture).

Daniel Coyle, the author of The Culture Code, offers another version:

“Culture is a set of living relationships working towards a shared goal. it is not something you are, it’s something you do.”

Elements of Culture

Johnson and Scholes devised the cultural web model (included in the header image above) to outline the complex interaction of the major dimensions through which culture is expressed. In their model, those cultural elements which interact to create a paradigm, or prevailing climate, are:

• Stories
• Symbols
• Power structures
• Organisational structures
• Control systems, and
• Rituals and routines

The values, beliefs, and assumptions of the individuals and groups within the organisation, and their behaviour, are not highlighted in this model, but rather implied.

Cultural orientations

The cultural ‘climate’ can also be modified by shifting the emphasis placed on certain attitudes, or orientations, as suggested in the work of O’Reilly et al, and Hofstede et al. These shifts will be designed to promote certain behaviours and sanction others.

The key domains in which the attitudes of the board and management can affect the culture of an organisation (set the tone) have been identified as follows:

• Innovation (Risk Orientation).
• Attention to Detail (Precision Orientation).
• Emphasis on Outcome (Achievement Orientation).
• Emphasis on People (Fairness Orientation).
• Teamwork (Collaboration Orientation).
• Aggressiveness (Competitive Orientation).
• Stability (Rule Orientation).

These orientations are based on factors explored in:

O’Reilly, C., & Chatman, J., & Caldwell, D. (1991). People and Organizational Culture: A Profile Comparison Approach to Assessing Person-Organization Fit. Academy of Management Journal. 34. 487-516, and

Chatman, J., & Jehn, K., Assessing the Relationship between Industry Characteristics and Organizational Culture: How Different Can You Be? The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 37, No. 3 (Jun., 1994), pp. 522-553

Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions, offer an alternative set of focal areas in which directors and managers can set the orgaisational ‘tone’. In their model, calibration can be achieved within a spectrum of possibilities for each of the featured domains.

• Power distance
• Collectivism Vs Individualism
• Uncertainty Avoidance
• Femininity Vs Masculinity
• Short-term Vs Long-term
• Restraint Vs Indulgence

These two sets of orientations provide the other two faces of the Organisational Culture Cube in the header image above.

Model mashups

The header image juxtaposes three organisational culture models related to the elements and dimensions of culture, each of which refers to somewhat different cultural factors or orientations.

Traditional cube charts seek to suggest specific relationships ‘inside the cube’ between each of the factors or variables identified on the three outer faces. In the case of the cube in the header image, and the two below, the implied relationships between factors and variables are not so much a matter of locating points of intersection between three specific criteria or factors (one from each set). Instead, the ‘mashups‘ offer potential catalysts for reflection on how quite different perspectives might need to be accommodated when seeking to improve culture via governance and management measures.

The three model mashups selected here involve just nine of the many cultural models and frameworks that have been devised over the years to help practitioners and academics better understand organisational culture, and to engage with it more constructively. As a thought experiment that seeks further insights for your organisation, you could try juxtaposing these nine models in different combinations, or in combination with other models you are familiar with.

The organisational culture series

This introductory post is the first in a series on organisational culture (and behaviour), which is a vast and complex field. Future posts will include reflections on:

• the various lenses through which culture may be viewed
• some of the metaphors (in addition to ‘the weather’) we use to characterise organisational cultures, and
• some insights offered by ‘anthropo-morphising’ the organisation.

See also:

Multi-focal Views of Organisational Culture

Choosing an organisational metaphor? Choose wisely!

Organisational mindfulness

Golden means or ends?

What? So What? and Now What? – your reflective practice guide

Hofstede, G., Hofstede, GJ., and Minkov, M., Cultures and Organisations: Software of the Mind, McGraw Hill, 2010

Coyle, D., The Culture Code: The secrets of highly successful groups, Cornerstone Digital, 2018

https://www.pearson.com/us/higher-education/program/Robbins-Organizational-Behavior-Plus-2019-My-Lab-Management-with-Pearson-e-Text-Access-Card-Package-18th-Edition/PGM2703216.html

https://www.pearson.com/uk/educators/higher-education-educators/program/Mullins-Organisational-Behaviour-in-the-Workplace-12th-Edition/PGM2586147.html

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The POPIT Model

 

What is the POPIT model?

The POPIT model is a strategic framework used to analyse and improve organisational structures and processes. It stands for People, Organisation, Processes, and Information Technology. The model provides insights into the interplay between these elements, helping organisations identify needs, opportunities, and desired changes. By offering a structured perspective, POPIT aids in solving business problems and enhancing decision-making processes. It serves as a comprehensive tool for understanding and aligning different organisational aspects.

More than often, especially on digital transformation programmes and initiatives, there is a focus on technology to solve a business problem, with some projects proceeding on this basis. But as the project progresses, especially in a complex domain, it will soon become apparent that introducing a technology solution may have an impact and implications on the process, organisation, people and information.

Having the POPIT model in mind as a business analyst provides a useful holistic checklist reference guide to consider, as you carry out your business analysis activities during current state analysis (AS-IS) and future state analysis (TO-BE).

Taking a holistic approach is even more important when it comes to digital transformation to help ensure alignment of the overall business solution.

The POPIT model is also a useful reference when deploying or transitioning a technology solution and considering the associated impacts. For example,

Process – have the process maps or operational procedures been updated?

Organisation – has the organisational structure been updated; or is a new department or function needed?

People – have the operational staff impacted by the change been consulted and trained?

Information – what information is needed to support and solve the business problem? Are there any legislation information needs which governs the operational use of the information? Are there any retention policies or archiving consideration of the information?

Technology – What applications, hardware, software is needed to support the deployed technology solution.

Using the perspective of the POPIT model helps to have better alignment of the change, needs, solution, stakeholder, value, and contextOpens in a new tab.. A POPIT gap analysis can be performed between the current state (AS-IS) and the future state (TO-BE) using the POPIT model as a reference and helping to enable the business analyst to understand any change that is taking place within an organisation.

Historical context and development

The POPIT model evolved as a practical tool for business analysts seeking to address complex organisational challenges. Originally developed as a holistic model for business analysis, it provides a comprehensive view of a business’s operational landscape. Over time, it has become a staple in strategic analysis, particularly useful for conducting gap analyses. By continually reviewing and adapting the model, organisations can ensure that their strategies remain relevant and comprehensive, leading to improved outcomes.

Components of the POPIT model

People

In the POPIT model, people are the core drivers of organisational success. They include employees, management, and stakeholders who influence and execute business strategies. Understanding their roles, motivations, and skills is crucial for aligning them with organisational goals. By focusing on people, businesses can foster a supportive culture, enhance productivity, and facilitate successful change management, ultimately impacting the organisation’s overall performance.

The People

The workforce within an organization contributes to its success. People own processes (process owners) and their skills, competencies, knowledge, and behaviors impact how efficiently processes are carried out and technology is utilized. People also influence decision-making and innovation within the organization. The greatest asset of any organisation is directly related to the quality of people at the operational, tactical and strategic level?

Probable questions to ask when analyzing the people elements of an enterprise

• Do staff have the required skill sets to perform allocated tasks and activities?
• Is tacit knowledge involved with a role and has not been documented?
• Is there a well designed and crafted role and responsibility for each role?
• Have you socialized the roles and responsibilities with owners?
• Does process owner understand how their output impact others inputs?
• Is there a training gaps or usability needs that needs to be filled?
• What is the morale and motivation of the people towards tasks?

• Is there are wrong culture among staff?
• Are staff product agnostic?
• Are people engaged and managed appropriately?
• Do we have the wrong people doing the right tasks?
• Do we have the right people doing the wrong tasks?
• Are people compensated for doing the wrong things?
• Are people recruited in alignment with organization’s value or just competence?

Organisation

The organisation component examines the structure and culture within a company. It evaluates how tasks are divided, departments are structured, and how culture influences decision-making. A well-defined organisational structure ensures clarity in roles and responsibilities, while a positive culture promotes collaboration and innovation. By analysing these aspects, organisations can identify areas for improvement and align their structure with strategic objectives.

Organizational Structure

The way an organization is structured affects how people collaborate, communicate, and work together. I once worked in an organization where changes to the organizational structure and well-defined roles and responsibilities unlocked business opportunities and sustained outcomes. Hierarchical structures, reporting lines, and departments influence how information flows and the ways processes are managed within the company.

Probable questions to ask when analyzing the structure/location elements of an enterprise

1. • What type of organizational structure is place?
   • Is the structure limiting and helping people to get work done?
   • Is the organisation top heavy?
   • Is there a need to inject tech savvy humanist in top management?
   • Is there a need to remove some roles/approval levels and hands-off?
   • Is there a fluid connection from strategic to tactical and operational levels?
   • Is there a frequent skill and competence framework review?
   • Are there ongoing bureaucracy and politics that limit decision making

Processes

Processes are vital for ensuring efficient and effective operations within an organisation. They encompass the workflows and procedures that guide daily activities and decision-making. By evaluating and optimising processes, businesses can reduce inefficiencies, improve quality, and respond swiftly to market changes. This component of the POPIT model ensures that operations are streamlined and contribute to achieving strategic goals.

Processes

These are the workflows and procedures that guide how tasks are performed within the organization. Great BAs analyse the outcomes of these processes rather than the output (we will discuss this in the next article). Processes can be cumbersome when not simplified nor optimized. It is important to remove unnecessary hands offs, waste and decision points. Effective processes streamline work, improve efficiency, and ultimately impact how information is processes, managed, utilized, stored and shared. Decentralizing or centralizing a task can have massive impact on targeted outcomes.

Probable questions to ask when analyzing the process elements of an enterprise

• How are tasked allocated, managed and completed within and between teams.
• Do existing processes support the optimal workforce utilization?
• Were current process designed with customer in mind?
• Does the process align with strategic ambition of the firm?
• Are the process simplified enough without convoluted approval process?
• Are there delays of forms of waste in the value stream?
• Are there activities that can be shifted to external stakeholders?

• Are there tasks that are best automated by currently manually driven?
• Are there gaps, bottlenecks and limitations in the existing processes?
• Are there new tasks that should be candidates for automation?
• Ultimately, are process performance and operational data captured for future analysis?

Information Technology

Information Technology (IT) supports all other components of the POPIT model by providing the necessary tools and systems for communication, data management, and process automation. Its role is to enhance productivity, facilitate data-driven decision-making, and support strategic initiatives. By integrating IT effectively, organisations can improve operational efficiency and maintain a competitive edge while ensuring alignment between technology investments and business needs.

Information

Information is a crucial asset that ties everything together. Remember, information is processed data and the quality of information is highly hinged on the quality of data collected upstream our processes. There is a need to generate, process, store, and utilized quality information across the organization to make informed decision. The availability and quality of information impact not only decision-making, but strategic direction, tactical decision, technology investment and utilization levels.

Probable questions to ask when analyzing the data/information elements of an enterprise

• What functions/role needs data?
• What type of data do we need to execute tasks and draw insights?
• How is data collected, analysed, retrieved, stored and managed?
• What are the minimum data required or needed?
• Is data best stored on premises or in the cloud?
• What tiers of hot, coo, cold and archived data is required?
• How do we manage access to information – using RBAC to perform work?

• Are there inherent gaps, bottlenecks or barriers to information flow?
• How is tacit knowledge captured to support continuous improvement practice?
• How can we ensure availability, scalability, reliability of information and services?

Technology

Technological tools and systems enable and support the people and processes within an organization. In no distant time, any task or activity that is repetitive, can be digitalized and or automated is best handled and delivered by technology not human. The people part of POPIT will be best employed to handle tasks that require high level human cognition. Technology facilitates communication, automate tasks, manage information, and optimize workflows. The technology also impact how people interact with information and perform tasks. With the advent of AI, machine learning, cloud computing, networking and storage, the line between the technology and people parts of POPIT is becoming blurred as organizations are leveraging technology to gain competitive advantage.

Probable questions to ask when analyzing the technology elements of an enterprise

• Does the existing technology stack support people efficiency?
• How well do different technology systems within the organisation integrate with each other or one another.
• What emerging technology could enhance people and information management?
• What existing technology capabilities can be explored and employed?
• Is there a need for a case for change for adopting or removing technology?
• Was there any design principle that drove technology or architectural designs?

The POPIT model is useful in a variety of scenarios, including system design and development, process improvement, and IT planning. It can be used to identify areas for improvement, optimize processes, and ensure that technology is aligned with business objectives.

POPIT model: Matching security to business context 

Advantages of the POPIT model include its comprehensive view of the business system, its ability to identify areas for improvement, and its use in aligning technology with business objectives.

Drawbacks of the POPIT model include its complexity, the time and resources required to implement it, and the need for continuous monitoring and updating.

Here is a more comprehensive list of those advantages and drawbacks:

Advantages:

Easy to use and implement: The POPIT model is simple and user-friendly, making it easy to implement in various organizational structures.

 Cost-effective: POPIT is an affordable model, making it accessible to organizations of different sizes and budget levels.

 Customizable: The model can be adapted to fit different organizational needs and goals, making it flexible and adaptable.

 Improves communication: POPIT facilitates effective communication between employees and departments, improving overall efficiency and productivity.

 Increases accountability: The model helps to increase accountability among employees, as it makes it clear who is responsible for what.

 Enhances decision-making: POPIT provides a structure for making decisions, reducing the risk of misunderstandings and increasing the chances of successful outcomes.

 Enhances collaboration: The model encourages collaboration between different departments and employees, promoting teamwork and a sense of unity.

 Improves performance: POPIT helps organizations to improve performance by providing a clear framework for planning and execution.

 Facilitates goal-setting: The model makes it easier for organizations to set goals and track progress, providing a clear roadmap for success.

 Increases motivation: POPIT helps to increase motivation among employees, as it provides a clear sense of purpose and direction.

Drawbacks:

Resistance to change: Some employees may resist the implementation of the POPIT model, as it represents a change from their traditional working practices.

 Lack of flexibility: The model may be rigid and inflexible, making it difficult to adapt to changing circumstances and conditions.

 Complexity: For larger organizations, the POPIT model may be too complex to implement effectively, as it requires a significant amount of time and resources.

 Lack of customization: The model may not be suitable for all organizations, as it may not be customizable enough to meet specific needs and requirements.

 Overreliance on technology: The model relies heavily on technology, which may cause problems if the technology fails or is unavailable.

 Poor implementation: The POPIT model may not be effective if it is not implemented correctly, as it requires a clear understanding of the organization's goals and objectives.

 Resistance from management: Management may resist the implementation of the POPIT model, as it represents a change from their traditional decision-making processes.

 Risk of information overload: The model may result in information overload, as it requires a significant amount of data to be gathered and processed.

 Loss of creativity: The model may stifle creativity and innovation, as it provides a rigid structure for decision-making and problem-solving.

 Difficulty in measuring success: The model may be difficult to measure the success of, as it is not always easy to determine if it is delivering the desired results.

Integrating the POPIT model with other tools

Using POPIT for gap analysis

The POPIT model serves as an effective framework for conducting gap analysis within an organisation. It enables analysts to identify discrepancies between current operations and desired future states. By examining each component—People, Organisation, Processes, and Information Technology—businesses can pinpoint areas needing improvement. This structured approach highlights gaps, allowing organisations to devise targeted strategies for closing them. Regularly reviewing the POPIT model ensures that all aspects of the organisation are considered, facilitating comprehensive change management and strategic alignment.

Complementary tools SWOT and PESTLE

Combining the POPIT model with tools such as SWOT and PESTLE analysis strengthens strategic planning. SWOT analysis provides insights into internal strengths and weaknesses, while PESTLE examines external influences. These insights complement the detailed focus of the POPIT model. By combining these tools, organisations can achieve a well-rounded understanding of their strategic environment. This integrated approach enhances decision-making by providing clarity and a cohesive plan for achieving organisational goals.

Best practices for implementing the POPIT model

Continuous review and adaptation

Regularly updating the POPIT model is crucial for reflecting organisational changes and evolving project needs. As the project progresses, revisit each component—People, Organisation, Processes, and Information Technology—to ensure they align with current objectives and strategies. Continuous review allows organisations to remain flexible, adapting to new challenges and opportunities. This ongoing process ensures that strategic decisions are informed by the latest insights, reducing uncertainty and enhancing organisational resilience.

Engaging stakeholders

Involving key stakeholders in the POPIT analysis process is vital for achieving comprehensive outcomes. Engage a diverse group, including employees, management, and external partners, to gather varied perspectives. This collaboration fosters a shared understanding of goals and enhances commitment to the strategic plan. Encourage open communication and feedback to identify potential issues early. By actively involving stakeholders, organisations can ensure that the analysis is thorough and that the resulting strategies enjoy broad support, ultimately leading to more effective implementation

FAQs

How does the POPIT model differ from other strategic frameworks?

The POPIT model offers a holistic approach by focusing on People, Organisation, Processes, and IT, providing a comprehensive view distinct from other frameworks.

Can the POPIT model be applied to small businesses?

Yes, the POPIT model is scalable and can be tailored to suit the specific needs and constraints of small enterprises.

What industries benefit most from the POPIT model?

Industries undergoing rapid change, such as technology and healthcare, greatly benefit from the structured analysis provided by the POPIT model.

Are there software tools to assist with the POPIT model?

Various business analysis and diagramming tools can support POPIT model analysis through visual mapping and documentation.

Infographic

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