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среда, 18 марта 2026 г.

How to use AI to surface evolving trends (even before they arise)

 



Silvia Segura
Strategist Lead

Leo Velásquez
Strategist

Consumer behavior is not static.

With increased access to information, social media and social movements, our behavior shifts more rapidly than ever, making it difficult to keep up with consumer segmentation.

That’s where AI comes into play:

AI-powered clustering can help uncover new micro-segments and surface evolving trends and consumer preferences that traditional methods miss.

The problem with traditional segmentation

People don’t fit into neat boxes anymore. Static segments like “Gen Z” or “Millennials” miss the nuance.

Today’s consumers are fluid and interests shift with each scroll, like, or trend. Relying on traditional and static segmentation can create missed opportunities for businesses.

Enter AI-powered clustering

AI helps us move beyond basic demographics. Clustering algorithms like k-means and hierarchical clustering group people based on what actually matters:

  • their attitudes,
  • actual behaviors,
  • and preferences on specific issues.

Not just age or buying power.

From
To

Manual and time-consuming sifting through large data sets; looking for evident (surface-level) patterns

AI-driven synthesis and uncovering of deep consumer insights from large data sets

Traditional segmentation based on static, historical demographic and behavioral data

Dynamic micro segments; continuously updated with new behavioral and reactionary data

Brands reacting to consumers’ past behavior, expressed needs and current trends

Brands predicting consumer needs and desired, including unexpressed preferences

Consumer insights team interpreting data reactively; relying on outdated frameworks

Proactively using incoming, real-time data to continually update and evolve segmentation frameworks

Marketing strategies designed for static consumer segments

Dynamic marketing that adapts to evolving and emerging micro segments




Real-world example of AI-powered research

AI-powered clustering in traditional research

In a recent client project on hygiene products, we used clustering techniques to uncover unique consumer groups we’d never see with standard filters: Low Concern Minimalists

They weren’t defined by gender or income, but by a shared mindset and interested in unconventional benefits like advanced cleansing formats or unconventional wellness claims.

Without clustering, this valuable insight would have likely slipped through the cracks. By letting the data guide us, we uncovered a micro-segment with a unique combination of characteristics, behaviors, needs, and preferences—and revealed entirely new opportunities to connect with them through messaging that truly speaks their language.



Visual representation of hygiene products consumer segments identified via K-means clustering.

Each dot represents a respondent; colors indicate cluster assignment.

A new type of AI-powered research: Agentic Social Listening

The potential of AI-powered clustering goes far beyond traditional research.

In a pioneering project with a fintech brand preparing to launch a credit card for Gen Z consumers, we used advanced clustering methods to gain a deep understanding of the “under-25” audience (their attitudes, cultural cues, and content preferences) through the lens of their organic online behavior.


Using Agentic Social Listening, we gathered over 150,000 social media mentions from platforms like TikTok, Reddit, and Instagram, and extracted rich signals from video transcripts, comments, and visuals, enabling us to apply visual clue clustering. That method organizes content based on shared aesthetic and contextual patterns.

Through this approach, we identified 10+ distinct Gen Z sub-segments, each built around a unique cultural theme—from sports and anime to sustainable fashion and high-adrenaline interests like motorcycles and speed sports.

From cluster to create: How to actually use them?

Identifying clusters is just step one. The real power comes when you activate them. Fast.

Here’s how we do it

Once micro-segments are mapped, we plug their behavioral and cultural data directly into creative agents.

These AI models generate tailored campaign assets on the fly: everything from messaging and visuals to packaging ideas and content formats, aligned with each segment’s emotional and aesthetic codes.


The agents we built autonomously created visual mockups and messaging tailored to this group’s tone, culture, and content style. These outputs weren’t static; they evolved across iterations with different clusters, constantly optimizing communication to better engage each micro-segment.

One of the biggest opportunities this method unlocks is the shift from insight to immediate execution. With these models, you’re not just discovering who your audience is. You’re acting on that intelligence, instantly.

Creative agents take the cluster-specific data (like visual preferences, tone, or behavioral pain points) and use it to generate ready-to-use brand assets, campaign ideas, packaging mockups, and product messaging that feels hyper-personalized.

That means no lag between insight and execution.

This is especially powerful in fast-moving categories like lifestyle, consumer goods or youth finance. This setup lets you:

  • Skip the middle step: go from segment to campaign-ready creative instantly
  • Tailor design, tone, and storytelling to match each group’s vibe
  • Refresh content dynamically as clusters evolve

It’s not about “understanding” your audience anymore but about creating for them in real time.

Why this matters: 10 opportunities this brings to businesses

1. Understanding evolving behavior

Group people or entities based on real-world behavior—what they do, not just who they are.

Use it for

Spotting changing user habits, lifestyle shifts, or usage trends.

Example

Detect clusters of people who suddenly start cooking at home more, or those reducing digital screen time—regardless of their demographics.

2. Responding to shifts in real time

Continuously update clusters as new data flows in—capturing emerging needs or patterns.

Use it for

Adaptive systems that adjust on the fly (like services, products, experiences).

Example

Re-cluster users weekly to reflect current preferences or environmental conditions—like shifting from “travel planning” to “budget anxiety.”

3. Finding the hidden common denominator

Group people/things based on deep similarities—often hidden in complex data.

Use it for

Uncovering surprising connections that wouldn’t appear in top-level analytics.

Example

Grouping users across different platforms who respond to the same type of humor or visual format.

4. Building better prototypes, faster

Inform prototyping by showing the diversity within your audience or system.

Use it for

Testing concepts across real-life behavioral clusters—not arbitrary segments.

Example

Create 3–5 concept variations matched to real-world clusters (e.g. “convenience-maximizers” vs. “value-seekers”) for rapid iteration.

5. Compressing noisy data into actionable insight

Summarize messy inputs (qualitative surveys, usage logs, open text) into coherent clusters.

Use it for

Making sense of diverse feedback or unpredictable systems.

Example

Analyze thousands of data points across sources (like social media) to condense and form distinct groups.

6. Revealing identity beyond labels

Build fluid personas based on behavior and belief systems rather than static attributes.

Use it for

Creating more nuanced profiles that reflect lived experience.

Example

Identify people who make eco-conscious choices but reject “green” branding, revealing tensions between action and identity.

7. Guiding personalization without overfitting

Create flexible groups that allow for meaningful personalization, without assuming you know exactly what each individual wants.

Use it for

Balancing personalization with scalability.

Example

Recommend solutions based on flexible clusters of intent (e.g., “explorers” vs. “optimizers”) rather than overly-specific personal data.

8. Identifying early signals

Detect early signals forming into emerging behaviors or patterns.

Use it for

Foresight, innovation scouting, trend monitoring.

Example

Spotting a new type of decision-making logic emerging among users before it goes mainstream.

9. Localizing decision-making

Apply clustering dynamically within a specific geography, culture, or community.

Use it for

Designing interventions, policies, or solutions tailored to real-life contexts.

Example

Instead of applying a global persona, cluster by actual on-the-ground realities (e.g., “urban heat avoiders” vs. “resilient commuters”).

10. AI-assisted strategic foresight

Use dynamic clustering to simulate how audiences may evolve under different future scenarios.

Use it for

Planning resilient, future-ready strategies (for product lines, policies, or services).

Example

See how today’s niche segments (e.g., “tech-cautious eco-maximalists”) might grow or shrink under different tech or economic trends.

Do I need to be a programmer?

No! That’s the beauty of it.

You can use no-code tools like Conjointly Clustering Demo or OpinionX Cluster Tab, AI-powered platforms that automatically analyze and group survey responses based on similar responses or unique, strong opinions.

This allows you to identify emerging micro-segments quickly and with greater precision without having to sift through data manually.


Opinion X view of the clustering feature

Or, if you’re feeling adventurous, use simple Python code to run your own clustering models.

Here’s a quick example:


Don’t want to code? Ask an LLM to help you out. With a well-crafted prompt, these models can write the code for you, or even run the clustering for you.

AI is changing insights

AI-powered clustering isn’t just a smarter way to segment. You can use it as a strategic unlock across your whole organization.

Whether you’re a data analyst, marketer, or brand strategist, adopting AI-driven insights will not only help you discover emerging consumer trends but also allow you to anticipate needs and preferences before they become widespread.


https://tinyurl.com/a7a3usf7

суббота, 14 февраля 2026 г.

The Decoy Effect

 


How adding a new option might change our perception of the existing options

What is the Decoy Effect about?

“[…] when we are choosing between two alternatives, the addition of a third, less attractive option (the decoy) can influence our perception of the original two choices.” (The Decision Lab)

It is also called the “asymmetric dominance effect.” Here is why: the decoy is an option that’s clearly worse than the target option (so it is dominated by the target), while it’s not completely dominated by the competitor 

“[…] when we are choosing between two alternatives, the addition of a third, less attractive option (the decoy) can influence our perception of the original two choices.” (The Decision Lab)

It is also called the “asymmetric dominance effect.” Here is why: the decoy is an option that’s clearly worse than the target option (so it is dominated by the target), while it’s not completely dominated by the competitor option.

The Story of The Economist

Originally, they introduced 2 subscription plans:

  • 1 year online-only $59
  • 1 year online + print $125

Most subscribers chose the first option, so they added a third plan, the decoy: 1 year print-only for $125. Now the other $125 option (online + print) was a no-brainer: the decoy successfully made the target option more attractive. As result, sales increased by 43%.


Dan Ariely, author of the fantastic book, Predictably Irrational, repeated this pricing strategy as an experiment at MIT: he showed these subscription options to 100 MIT students:


  • 16 student chose the online-only
  • 0 (zero) student chose the print-only
  • 84 student picked the online+print

Then, he removed the decoy option, the results clearly showed that it influenced decision making a lot:


  • 68 students chose the online-only
  • 32 chose the online+print

Everything is relative


Here are some quotes from Ariely’s book, Predictably Irrational:

“Let me start with a fundamental observation: most people don’t know what they want unless they see it in context.”

“[…] humans rarely choose things in absolute terms. We don’t have an internal value meter that tells us how much things are worth. Rather, we focus on the relative advantage of one thing over another, and estimate value accordingly”

Ariely uses the Ebbinghaus illusion of relative size perception to demonstrate that everything is context-dependent: there are two circles of identical size, but the one on the left (see my sketch) appears to be bigger, since it is surrounded by smaller circles, while the one on the right seems to be smaller, since there are much bigger circles next to it.

Key takeaways

Decoys are about asymmetric differences based on comparative values, e.g. price and quality (see the original paper by Huber, Payne & Puto from 1982: Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: Violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis).

A decoy:

  • influences decision making
  • works subconsciously
  • adds a new reference point (see: Loss Aversion)

Recommended reading & useful links


Huber, J., Payne, J. W., Puto, C. (1982). Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: Violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis. In: Journal of Consumer Research, 9(1), , 90–98

Predictably Irrational

Huber, J., Payne, J. W., Puto, C. (1982). Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: Violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis. In: Journal of Consumer Research, 9(1), , 90–98

Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions by Dan Ariely




https://tinyurl.com/mrxjdfvs

суббота, 27 декабря 2025 г.

25 Insights of 2025

 

Introduction

The year has been a whirlwind of both uncertainties and optimism. So where do we go from here? From data-backed research by leading business institutions around the globe, here are 25 insights from the year 2025. Stay informed with these trend developments in business strategies, macroenvironment shifts, consumer behaviors, technological advancements, product evolution, and talent landscape, and reference them to support and enhance your future decisions.


Business Strategies



2025 highlights a clear tension between technological ambition and realized value. Organizations continue directing meaningful portions of digital transformation budgets toward AI, yet much of the expected impact remains unreached. This gap is pushing leaders to tighten ROI discipline, monitor performance more systematically, and clarify where value is truly created.


Data monetization is rising quickly – expanding business models and accelerating the pressure to prove returns. At the same time, executives prioritize innovation while investors emphasize financial resilience, widening the need for clearer value narratives and balanced capital decisions.



Amid this, product organizations that anchor choices in customer outcomes – rather than delivery volume – consistently outperform. With Gen AI creating multiple possible futures, resilient strategies now rely on pressure-testing assumptions and ensuring value-centered decision-making across the enterprise.

Macroenvironment Shifts



Macroenvironment shifts reveal a landscape shaped by fast-moving technology, geopolitical realignment, and evolving societal expectations. Tech continues to act as the strongest tailwind, accelerating AI adoption, digitization, and data-led growth. At the same time, rising regulatory complexity, trust erosion, and workforce transitions create meaningful headwinds that require organizations to redesign operating models.


Geopolitical changes are redrawing trade corridors, exposing sectors to uneven upside depending on scenario outcomes – whether baseline, diversification, or fragmentation. These dynamics are already reshaping global manufacturing strategies, with regions evaluated through new tradeoffs in cost, speed, stability, and labor availability.

In response, organizations are turning to emergent structures – platform models, enterprise agility, and decentralized networks – to stay resilient, align operations to uncertainty, and position themselves for long-term competitiveness.


Consumer Behaviors



Consumer behavior is shaped by a widening tension between rising expectations and uneven brand execution. Customers want AI-powered personalization, seamless experiences, and greater transparency, yet satisfaction lags significantly – especially in data handling and automated support. This trust gap elevates privacy assurances as a core component of brand value.


AI-led interactions, however, demonstrate clear performance upside, driving lower bounce rates, higher engagement, and stronger revenue per visit. As digital journeys improve, measurement also evolves. New metrics such as the "attention quotient" and "commercial quotient" help brands understand how fragmented focus and platform sophistication translate into monetization potential.


Underlying these metrics is a shift toward attention-based segmentation. Seven distinct consumer groups now display markedly different spending behaviors, media habits, and responsiveness to advertising. Notably, top media consumers do not always equate to top spenders, underscoring the need for precise targeting and content strategies that match true commercial value rather than raw consumption volume.


Technological Advancements



Rapid advances in AI infrastructure, intelligent systems, and cybersecurity are creating both opportunity and operational pressure for organizations. A three-pronged capability stack is emerging: Architect technologies lay the foundation with confidential computing and AI-native platforms; Synthesist capabilities such as multi-agent systems and domain-specific models elevate intelligence; and Vanguard capabilities address future risks through digital provenance, geopatriation, and advanced cyber defense.



These advancements also reshape IT economics. While Gen AI may initially increase expenses, it can address up to half of IT costs and deliver meaningful efficiency gains when deployed thoughtfully. As spending reallocates toward AI-powered platforms, IT evolves into a strategic multiplier that reduces technical debt, strengthens shared capabilities, and accelerates business value.


Yet a critical caution underscores these developments: ROI projections often overlook technical debt, which can erode or even reverse expected benefits. Organizations that account for this early – and invest in modernization alongside innovation – can protect returns and position their technology strategy for sustainable impact.


Product Evolution



Products are driven by a shift from generic "smartness" to more intentional value delivery. Three buyer personas – Purpose Seekers, Comfort Seekers, and Efficiency Seekers – now shape product expectations, each prioritizing different advantages such as time savings, sustainability, or healthier living. Understanding these segments has become essential for creating differentiated, resonant value propositions.


Trust also plays a defining role. Consumers reward companies that pair innovation with strong data responsibility, with "Trusted Trailblazers" earning higher satisfaction and greater household spending than providers perceived as either overly aggressive or too cautious.


Despite rapid innovation cycles, many users feel disconnected from new features. While personalization and improvements are appreciated, a majority express that updates arrive too quickly or fail to address real problems. This tension highlights the growing need for product strategies that balance innovation velocity with meaningful, user-centered progress.


Talent Landscape



AI adoption is accelerating faster than workforce readiness, widening gaps between required and available skills. Shortages in areas like data science, machine learning, and algorithm development threaten momentum unless organizations scale focused skilling, reskilling, and mobility programs. Workers value AI's speed benefits yet still prefer human quality for judgment-driven tasks, reinforcing the need for hybrid workflows that balance efficiency with expertise.



Strong managers amplify the impact of scarce technical talent. High performers deliver outsized productivity gains and improve alignment across roles, while practices such as better role–skill matching, lateral paths, and rotational assignments increase retention of AI-native employees. Organizations that prioritize capability development and people leadership will be better positioned to sustain progress in an AI-driven labor market.





https://tinyurl.com/mw22cn6a